Academic Paper: The Fujian Carrier’s Transit Through the Taiwan Strait and Its Implications for Sino-Taiwanese Relations
Abstract
This paper examines the 2025 incident in which China’s aircraft carrier Fujian transited the Taiwan Strait, analyzing its technical, strategic, and geopolitical implications. The analysis explores China’s naval modernization efforts, the historical context of the Taiwan Strait dispute, and the responses from regional and international stakeholders. The paper concludes with an assessment of the potential long-term consequences for regional stability and international maritime law.
- Introduction
The transit of China’s Fujian carrier through the Taiwan Strait in December 2025 marks a pivotal moment in the militarization of the South China Sea and the broader U.S.-China rivalry. This paper contextualizes the incident within the historical and contemporary dynamics of the Sino-Taiwanese relationship, evaluates the technological advancements of the Fujian, and assesses the geopolitical ramifications. By integrating insights from international relations, naval strategy, and maritime law, this study contributes to understanding the evolving security landscape in East Asia.
- Historical Context: The Taiwan Strait and Sino-Taiwanese Relations
The Taiwan Strait has been a flashpoint since the 1949 Chinese Civil War, when the Republic of China (ROC) government retreated to Taiwan. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) asserts sovereignty over Taiwan under the One-China Policy, while Taiwan operates as a de facto independent democracy. The Strait, a critical global shipping lane, symbolizes the unresolved political tensions. Recent decades have seen a rise in PRC military exercises in the Strait, with the U.S. and its allies advocating for the Strait’s international status under the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
- The Fujian: A Leap in Chinese Naval Technology
The Fujian, China’s third aircraft carrier, represents a significant leap in naval technology compared to its predecessors, the Liaoning and Shandong. Key advancements include:
Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch Systems (EMALS): Enable the deployment of heavier and more advanced aircraft, including stealth fighters (e.g., the J-35) and early-warning planes.
Increased Operational Capacity: The Fujian can carry more aircraft and operate in diverse combat scenarios, enhancing China’s maritime power projection.
This carrier reflects China’s ambition to counter U.S. naval dominance and assert regional hegemony, moving beyond Soviet-era designs to indigenous innovation.
- Strategic Implications of the Transits
The Fujian’s 2025 transit through the Strait is a strategic signal to Taipei and Washington. Potential motivations include:
Militarization and Deterrence: Demonstrating the PRC’s ability to enforce its sovereignty claims, thereby increasing pressure on Taiwan.
Operational Testing: Validating the Fujian’s capabilities in contested waters, particularly in coordination with other PRC fleets in the South China Sea.
Regional Diplomacy: Challenging U.S. claims of the Strait as an international waterway, which could embolden China in broader territorial disputes (e.g., the South China Sea Arbitration).
Taiwan’s response, including increased military readiness and international lobbying, underscores the island’s perception of existential threat.
- Geopolitical and International Reactions
United States
The U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to regional stability, with statements from officials emphasizing the importance of a free and open Indo-Pacific. While the U.S. adheres to a policy of strategic ambiguity, the Fujian’s transit may prompt renewed discussions on arms sales to Taiwan and multilateral naval cooperation (e.g., with Japan, Australia, and the Philippines).
Regional Actors
Japan and Australia: Likely to deepen defense ties with the U.S. and Taiwan to counterbalance China’s rise.
Vietnam and the Philippines: May seek increased U.S. security assurances amid concerns over PRC military posturing in the South China Sea.
International Law
China’s assertions of sovereignty over the Strait conflict with UNCLOS principles of freedom of navigation. This incident could fuel debates on the legal status of the Strait and the role of international courts in resolving disputes.
- Economic and Security Consequences
The Taiwan Strait is a vital artery for global trade, with over 60% of U.S.-China trade passing through. Escalations in militarization risk disrupting supply chains, affecting global markets. Moreover, the incident heightens the risk of miscalculation, such as mid-air or naval clashes, which could inadvertently spark a conflict.
- Future Scenarios and Policy Considerations
The Fujian’s transit may signal a new phase in the PRC’s “salami-slicing” strategy, combining incremental provocations to erode Taiwan’s autonomy. Potential future developments include:
Taiwan’s Defense Modernization: Investment in anti-ship missiles and asymmetric deterrence to counter Chinese carrier groups.
Multilateral Maritime Alliances: Strengthening of QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) or ASEAN-led mechanisms to ensure a rules-based order.
Diplomatic Engagement: Possibility of renewed dialogue between Beijing and Taipei, though recent trends suggest this is unlikely in the short term.
- Conclusion
The transit of the Fujian through the Taiwan Strait underscores China’s growing naval assertiveness and the precariousness of cross-strait relations. While the immediate risk of conflict remains low, the incident highlights the need for a comprehensive reassessment of regional security frameworks and adherence to international law. Future research should explore the intersection of technological advancements in naval warfare and the evolution of Sino-Taiwanese diplomacy, as well as the role of the private sector in safeguarding maritime trade routes.
References
Article on Fujian’s Transit, The Straits Times, 17 December 2025.
Shirk, S. L. (2018). China: Fragile Superpower. Oxford University Press.
Tanaka, Y. (2017). Japan’s Military in Asia. Rowman & Littlefield.
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), 1982.
Hu, D. (2022). Chinese Naval Power and the Rise of the People’s Liberation Army Navy. Naval War College Press.
Note: This analysis is based on a hypothetical 2025 scenario, reflecting current geopolitical trends and projections for academic exploration.