Yemen Crisis

by | Dec 27, 2025 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

Case Study: The Hadramout Tensions (December 2025)

Background

Yemen’s conflict has entered a new phase with the Southern Transitional Council (STC) asserting control over eastern provinces, creating friction within what was nominally an alliance against Houthi forces. The December 2025 situation in Hadramout reveals deep fractures in the Saudi-led coalition.Yemen’s Saudi-led coalition has warned that it will respond to any military actions by the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Hadramout province that contradict de-escalation efforts, with the aim of protecting civilians. This statement came after Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council head requested immediate coalition intervention.

Background Context:

The STC, backed by the United Arab Emirates, has been expanding its territorial control throughout December 2025. The group has pushed the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government from its headquarters in Aden and claims broad control across southern Yemen.

Current Situation:

The STC rejected Saudi Arabia’s call to withdraw from recently seized areas, stating it would continue securing operations in Hadramout and Mahra provinces.

This situation highlights the complex web of competing interests in Yemen, with different regional powers (Saudi Arabia and UAE) backing opposing factions despite their broader alliance. The conflict poses risks to civilians caught in the middle of these territorial disputes.

Key Actors

Southern Transitional Council (STC)

  • UAE-backed separatist movement seeking southern Yemen independence
  • Controls Aden (former government headquarters) and expanding eastward
  • Claims legitimacy based on historical South Yemen (pre-1990 unification)

Saudi-led Coalition

  • Supports Yemen’s internationally recognized Presidential Leadership Council
  • Faces contradictory position: coalition partner (UAE) backing opposition to its chosen government
  • Concerned about regional stability and civilian protection

Presidential Leadership Council

  • Internationally recognized but weakened authority
  • Lost practical control of major southern territories
  • Dependent on Saudi support for legitimacy

Core Issues

Territorial Control: The STC’s expansion into Hadramout and Mahra provinces challenges the recognized government’s sovereignty and threatens Saudi Arabia’s strategic interests in eastern Yemen, which borders Oman and provides access to the Arabian Sea.

Coalition Fractures: The UAE and Saudi Arabia, despite being allies in the broader Yemen conflict, back opposing factions in the south. This reflects divergent strategic priorities: Saudi Arabia seeks a unified, stable Yemen under a friendly government, while the UAE appears to prioritize securing strategic ports and countering Islamist influences.

Civilian Vulnerability: Local populations face violence from competing armed groups, displacement, and disruption of essential services as territorial control shifts.

Legitimacy Questions: The STC argues it represents southern aspirations for self-determination, while the Presidential Leadership Council claims international legal authority. Neither has demonstrated effective governance capacity.

Potential Solutions

1. Negotiated Power-Sharing Framework

Approach: Facilitate dialogue between the STC, Presidential Leadership Council, and Saudi Arabia/UAE mediators to establish a federal or confederal governance structure.

Key Elements:

  • Constitutional arrangements granting substantial autonomy to southern regions
  • Revenue-sharing agreement for oil and port revenues
  • Integration of STC forces into national security architecture
  • Guaranteed representation in central government

Challenges: Deep mistrust between parties, competing visions for Yemen’s future, risk of excluding other stakeholders (particularly Houthis who control northern regions).

2. International Peacekeeping and Monitoring

Approach: Deploy UN or Arab League peacekeeping forces to Hadramout and contested areas, with clear mandates for civilian protection and monitoring ceasefire agreements.

Key Elements:

  • Neutral international presence to separate warring parties
  • Humanitarian corridors and protection zones
  • Independent monitoring of withdrawals and demilitarization
  • Support for local governance and service delivery

Challenges: Requires Security Council consensus (difficult given great power divisions), need for robust mandate and resources, potential rejection by parties viewing it as interference.

3. Regional Diplomatic Initiative

Approach: Convene Gulf Cooperation Council-led process to align Saudi and UAE positions, then broker broader Yemeni settlement.

Key Elements:

  • Saudi-UAE agreement on unified approach to southern Yemen
  • Phased transition plan with clear benchmarks
  • Economic reconstruction incentives tied to cooperation
  • Oman’s facilitation role given its neutral stance and regional ties

Challenges: Requires Saudi and UAE willingness to compromise strategic interests, risk of other regional powers (Iran) viewing process as illegitimate, implementation difficulties given Yemen’s fragmentation.

4. Decentralized Governance Model

Approach: Accept Yemen’s de facto partition and focus on improving governance within existing areas of control while maintaining loose federal structures.

Key Elements:

  • Autonomous regions with own security and economic management
  • Weak central coordination mechanism for shared interests
  • International support divided among regional authorities
  • Focus on service delivery and economic development over political unity

Challenges: May formalize division and make future reunification harder, competing authorities complicate international engagement, risk of continued localized conflicts.

Outlook: Scenarios and Probabilities

Near-Term (3-6 months)

Most Likely: Continued low-intensity conflict with shifting territorial control. The STC consolidates eastern gains while Saudi Arabia provides limited support to Presidential Leadership Council. Sporadic clashes occur but neither side can achieve decisive military victory. Civilian humanitarian situation deteriorates further.

Alternative Positive: Saudi Arabia brokers a ceasefire and opens dialogue between STC and Presidential Leadership Council, leading to temporary stabilization. UAE agrees to restrain STC in exchange for Saudi concessions on other regional issues.

Alternative Negative: Major escalation as STC pushes further or Saudi coalition conducts significant military operations. Broader breakdown of coalition leading to intensified proxy conflict.

Medium-Term (1-2 years)

Most Likely: Fragmented status quo persists with multiple centers of power (Houthis in north, STC in south, weak Presidential Leadership Council in between). Ongoing humanitarian crisis becomes normalized. International attention wanes as situation becomes intractable stalemate.

Alternative Positive: Power-sharing agreement reached establishing federal structure. Gradual stabilization allows reconstruction efforts and refugee returns. Regional powers maintain fragile consensus to prevent further deterioration.

Alternative Negative: State collapse accelerates with complete breakdown of central authority. Terrorist groups exploit security vacuum. Regional powers deepen involvement, potentially drawing in other actors. Mass displacement and famine intensify.

Long-Term (5+ years)

Most Likely: Yemen remains divided into distinct regions with different external backers. Parallel governance structures develop with varying effectiveness. Conflict becomes frozen but unresolved, similar to Libya or Somalia models.

Optimistic: Comprehensive peace agreement leads to new constitutional arrangements. Economic recovery begins as fighting ends. Yemen develops stable federal or confederal system balancing regional autonomy with national coherence.

Pessimistic: Complete state failure with Yemen becoming regional proxy battleground. Humanitarian catastrophe on unprecedented scale. Spillover effects destabilize Horn of Africa and Gulf region.

Singapore Impact Assessment

Direct Impacts

Maritime Security: Yemen’s strategic location along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait affects global shipping routes connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Singapore, as a major shipping and maritime hub, has substantial interests in safe passage through these waters. The STC controls key southern ports (Aden, Mukalla) that could be used to threaten maritime traffic.

Energy Security: While Singapore doesn’t import directly from Yemen, instability in the region affects global oil markets and tanker routes. Approximately 10 percent of global oil trade passes through Bab el-Mandeb. Disruptions could affect Singapore’s petroleum refining and bunkering industries.

Counterterrorism: Yemen’s ungoverned spaces have historically harbored extremist groups including Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). State fragmentation could create new safe havens affecting regional security. Singapore maintains vigilance against terrorism, and developments in distant conflicts can have local implications through radicalization or operational planning.

Indirect Impacts

Humanitarian Considerations: Singapore contributes to international humanitarian efforts and hosts UN agencies. Yemen’s crisis strains global humanitarian systems and may affect Singapore’s international partnerships and obligations.

Regional Partner Relations: Singapore maintains important economic and security relationships with Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and UAE. Yemen tensions between these partners could complicate Singapore’s diplomatic balancing and defense cooperation.

Precedent Concerns: Yemen’s territorial fragmentation and external intervention create precedents relevant to international law and sovereignty norms that Singapore, as a small state, has strong interests in maintaining.

Supply Chain Considerations: Extended regional instability could affect shipping insurance costs, routing decisions, and trade patterns affecting Singapore’s port competitiveness and logistics sector.

Singapore’s Potential Roles

Diplomatic Facilitation: Singapore’s reputation for neutrality and effective mediation could position it to facilitate dialogue, particularly on technical governance issues or as host for negotiations.

Humanitarian Contributions: Through the Singapore Red Cross, government aid programs, or multilateral channels, Singapore can support humanitarian relief efforts for Yemeni civilians.

Capacity Building: If peace progress occurs, Singapore’s expertise in port management, civil service development, and urban planning could contribute to reconstruction efforts.

Maritime Security Cooperation: Through existing frameworks like the Combined Maritime Forces or bilateral partnerships, Singapore can contribute to maintaining freedom of navigation and countering maritime threats emanating from the region.

Strategic Considerations

Singapore should monitor developments closely given maritime security interests, maintain engagement with Gulf partners on both sides of the dispute, support multilateral humanitarian efforts, and advocate for diplomatic solutions that preserve international norms around sovereignty and territorial integrity. The situation underscores the importance of diversified partnerships and the risks of distant conflicts affecting global systems Singapore depends upon.

Analysis based on developments as of December 27, 2025