‘Be Prepared’: The New Normal of Compound Disasters in Australia – A Case Study of the January 2026 Victorian Fires and Floods
Abstract
The concurrent occurrence of extreme weather events presents a formidable challenge to traditional disaster management frameworks. This paper analyses the sequence of catastrophic bushfires and extreme flash flooding that struck the state of Victoria, Australia, in January 2026, as a representative case study of compound disasters. Drawing on a contemporary media report from Agence France-Presse and contextualizing it within climate science and disaster management literature, this paper argues that this event exemplifies the ‘new normal’ for emergency response in a warming climate. The analysis demonstrates that such cascading hazards expose the limitations of siloed, single-hazard operational models. Instead, they necessitate a rapid paradigm shift towards integrated, adaptive ‘all-hazards’ approaches to policy, infrastructure planning, and public communication. The official exhortation for the public to ‘Be Prepared’ signifies a crucial, if challenging, recognition of the shared responsibility required to build community resilience in an era of systemic environmental risk.
Keywords: Compound Disasters, Climate Change, Disaster Management, Bushfires, Flash Flooding, Community Resilience, Australia, Emergency Management
- Introduction
The escalating global climate crisis is manifesting not just as an increase in the frequency and intensity of individual weather events, but as a rise in complex, interconnected hazards known as compound or cascading disasters (IPCC, 2021). These events, where one hazard exacerbates, triggers, or coincides with another, place unprecedented strain on emergency services, infrastructure, and community preparedness. Australia, as a continent historically defined by climatic extremes, is at the forefront of this new reality. The nation’s disaster management systems, traditionally organized around seasonal hazard cycles (e.g., a distinct ‘fire season’), are being tested by the rapid succession and overlap of opposing extremes.
On 16 January 2026, Agence France-Presse reported a stark illustration of this challenge. While the eastern state of Victoria was still battling ten major bushfires, a severe weather system brought torrential rainfall, leading to extreme flash flooding. This event, which saw cars swept into the sea and a major tourist route cut off, prompted Emergency Management Commissioner Tim Wiebusch to warn the public of the “severe-to-extreme heat wave, catastrophic bushfires and now extreme flash flooding,” urging communities to be “prepared for all types of emergencies” (AFP, 2026).
This paper uses the January 2026 Victorian event as a critical case study. It posits that this convergence of fire and flood is not an anomaly but a predictable consequence of anthropogenic climate change. It represents a microcosm of the systemic challenges facing modern disaster management. The central argument is that such events render traditional, hazard-specific response models obsolete and demand an urgent transition to holistic, flexible, and community-centric ‘all-hazards’ frameworks. This paper will first contextualize the event within climate science and disaster theory, then provide a detailed analysis of the case, and finally discuss its profound implications for policy, communication, and the future of resilience in Australia and beyond.
- Contextual Framework: Climate Change and the Rise of Compound Hazards
The scientific consensus confirms that climate change is intensifying the hydrological cycle in many parts of the world, leading to more extreme rainfall events, even as regions also experience prolonged droughts and heatwaves (CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, 2022). This paradox is particularly acute in southern Australia. A key mechanism linking fire and flood is the impact of wildfires on the landscape. Intense bushfires burn away vegetation and create a layer of waxy, water-repellent soils. These hydrophobic conditions drastically reduce the land’s ability to absorb water. When heavy rain subsequently falls on these fire-scorched catchments, it results in rapid surface runoff, leading to devastating flash floods, landslides, and debris flows (Moody & Martin, 2001).
The theoretical underpinnings of disaster management have evolved from a top-down, command-and-control model focused on response and recovery, to a more integrated cycle of Prevention, Preparedness, Response, and Recovery (PPRR). More recently, the focus has shifted towards building resilience—the capacity of communities to absorb, adapt to, and recover from shocks (Patel et al., 2017). However, the rise of compound hazards challenges even these contemporary models. The operational silos that often exist between fire agencies and flood/flood agencies can impede information sharing and resource allocation during a cascading event. As highlighted in the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (2020), a more integrated and nationally coordinated approach is essential for managing the scale and complexity of modern disasters.
- Case Study Analysis: The January 2026 Victorian Event
The AFP report (2026) provides a concise but rich snapshot of a compound disaster in action. This analysis will deconstruct the event based on the information provided, linking it to the broader theoretical context.
3.1. The Chronology of Cascading Hazards The event began with a “severe-to-extreme heat wave,” which acts as the preconditioning factor for both fires and intense rainfall. The heat and associated drought primed the landscape for “catastrophic bushfires.” While ten of these fires remained active, a sudden weather change brought “extreme flash flooding.” The report specifies a local record of 186 millimetres of rain falling in 24 hours in the state’s southwest. This sequence—heatwave -> fire -> extreme rainfall -> flood—is a textbook example of a compound disaster cascade.
3.2. Infrastructural and Social Vulnerability Exposed The vivid imagery in the report—cars “rolling around in muddy waters” and “partially submerged under the ocean waves”—is a powerful symbol of infrastructure failure and human vulnerability in the face of sudden hydrological violence. The flooding of the Wye River area and the severing of the Great Ocean Road, a vital economic and evacuation artery, had immediate and severe consequences. The forced evacuation of “up to 300 people,” many of them tourists at caravan camps, highlights the disproportionate impact on transient populations who may be unfamiliar with local risks and evacuation procedures. The injury and airlifting of a child underscores the acute human cost and the logistical strain on emergency medical services.
3.3. The Official Discourse: A Call for ‘All-Hazards’ Preparedness The statement by Emergency Management Commissioner Tim Wiebusch is the most significant aspect of the report for this analysis. His enumeration of the three consecutive extreme events—heatwave, fire, and flood—serves as an explicit public acknowledgement from a senior official of the compound disaster challenge. His concluding remark, “It really is a timely reminder that communities need to be prepared for all types of emergencies,” is a pivotal communication. It moves beyond a simple hazard-specific warning (e.g., “be ready for fire”) to a more complex and demanding message of universal preparedness. This reflects a necessary, but also challenging, shift in governmental messaging aimed at fostering a populace resilient to any and all shocks.
- Discussion: Wider Implications for Disaster Management and Resilience
The Victorian event forces a re-evaluation of several core tenets of disaster management.
4.1. The ‘All-Hazards’ Imperative The traditional demarcation between fire and flood seasons is collapsing. Emergency services must now be prepared to deploy resources for both simultaneously. This requires joint training, integrated command structures, and flexible equipment caches. An ‘all-hazards’ approach moves away from specific plans to a framework of principles that can be adapted to any disaster, emphasizing situational awareness, agile decision-making, and interoperability between agencies.
4.2. Land-Use Planning and Infrastructure Vulnerability The flooding of properties along the Wye River, a popular coastal and riverside area, brings into sharp focus the long-term risks of development in high-impact zones. Climate change necessitates a fundamental rethink of land-use zoning, building codes, and infrastructure standards. The concept of ‘managed retreat’—the strategic relocation of communities from indefensible areas—may transition from a theoretical option to a practical necessity in some locations.
4.3. Communication and Psychological Fatigue The public messaging challenge is immense. Asking a community to be on high alert for fire one day and flood the next can lead to ‘alert fatigue’ and desensitization. Communication strategies must become more sophisticated, clearly explaining the science behind compound risks without inducing fatalism. The psychological toll is also significant. The whiplash of dealing with the trauma of fire only to be immediately threatened by flood can erode mental well-being and community cohesion, requiring integrated psychosocial support to be embedded in disaster response.
4.4. The Responsibility of ‘Being Prepared’ Commissioner Wiebusch’s call for communities to ‘Be Prepared’ places a significant onus on individuals and local groups. While fostering self-reliance and community-level capacity is a cornerstone of resilience, there is a risk of it being interpreted as a shifting of responsibility from the state to the citizen. True preparedness requires a social contract where government provides accurate warnings, accessible resources, equitable infrastructure, and robust support systems, enabling communities to effectively act on that call to preparedness.
- Conclusion
The January 2026 floods and fires in Victoria are not a mere coincidence of unfortunate weather events. They are a predictable and alarming manifestation of the compound hazards amplified by climate change. This case study demonstrates that the siloed, single-hazard models of the past are insufficient to manage the complex risks of the present and future. The urgent call from authorities for the public to ‘Be Prepared for all types of emergencies’ must be met with a corresponding urgency from policymakers. This requires a systemic transformation: greater integration between emergency services, foundational changes to land-use planning, more nuanced and empathetic public communication, and a renewed commitment to investing in the social and physical infrastructure of resilience.
This event serves as a critical warning. Future research must prioritise better modelling of compound risk scenarios to enhance early warning systems and evaluate the efficacy of ‘all-hazards’ community engagement programs. As the climate continues to destabilise, the ability to anticipate, absorb, and adapt to these cascading shocks will be the defining measure of our collective preparedness.
References
Agence France-Presse. (2026, January 16). ‘Be Prepared’: Australia Warns People Of Sudden Floods, Fires.
CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology. (2022). State of the Climate Report. Australian Government.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
Moody, J. A., & Martin, D. A. (2001). Initial hydrologic and geomorphic response following a wildfire in the Colorado Front Range. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 26(10), 1049-1070.
Patel, S. S., Rogers, M. B., Amlôt, R., & Rubin, G. J. (2017). What do we mean by ‘community resilience’? A systematic literature review of how it is defined in the literature. PLOS Currents Disasters, 9.