Resilience, Innovation, and Shareholder Value Creation in 2025
February 2026
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This case study examines the strategic dividend growth initiatives of five leading Singapore blue-chip corporations during 2025, a pivotal year characterized by declining interest rates and evolving market dynamics. The analysis encompasses SATS Ltd., Singapore Exchange (SGX), DBS Group Holdings, ST Engineering, and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT), collectively representing diverse sectors including aviation services, financial markets infrastructure, banking, aerospace and defense, and real estate investment trusts.
The research reveals that these corporations demonstrated remarkable resilience through operational excellence, strategic acquisitions, and disciplined capital allocation, resulting in dividend increases ranging from 3.5% to 233% year-over-year. These increases were supported by robust fundamentals including strong cash flow generation, improving profitability metrics, and sustainable payout ratios. The findings indicate that dividend growth in Singapore’s blue-chip sector reflects not merely financial engineering but fundamental business strength and management confidence in sustained earnings growth.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- Introduction and Context
- Analytical Framework and Methodology
- Sectoral Analysis and Company Performance
- Growth Drivers and Strategic Outlook
- Solutions and Strategic Recommendations
- Impact Assessment and Market Implications
- Conclusion and Future Outlook
- INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT
1.1 Market Environment in 2025
The year 2025 marked a significant inflection point in global monetary policy, with multiple central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Monetary Authority of Singapore initiating interest rate reductions following an extended period of monetary tightening. This shift in the interest rate environment created both challenges and opportunities for dividend-focused investors.
Singapore’s blue-chip corporations navigated this transition with remarkable agility, leveraging improved operational performance and strategic positioning to enhance shareholder returns. The dividend increases observed across these five corporations occurred against a backdrop of recovering global trade, resilient domestic consumption, and ongoing digital transformation initiatives.
1.2 Strategic Significance of Dividend Growth
Dividend policy serves as a critical signaling mechanism through which management communicates confidence in future earnings sustainability and cash flow generation capacity. For Singapore’s blue-chip corporations, dividend increases in 2025 represented:
Validation of strategic initiatives undertaken during the pandemic recovery period, particularly in aviation and hospitality sectors
Demonstration of operational resilience and earnings quality amid macroeconomic uncertainties
Competitive positioning in attracting income-focused investors as fixed-income yields declined
Commitment to disciplined capital allocation balancing growth investments with shareholder returns
- ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY
2.1 Selection Criteria
The five corporations examined in this case study were selected based on the following criteria:
Constituent status in the Straits Times Index, representing Singapore’s premier blue-chip equities
Demonstrated dividend increase in fiscal year 2025 or the most recent reporting period
Sectoral diversity to provide comprehensive market perspective across aviation, finance, defense, and real estate
Availability of detailed financial disclosures enabling robust quantitative analysis
2.2 Key Performance Metrics
The analysis employs multiple financial metrics to assess dividend sustainability and growth quality:
Metric Definition and Significance
Dividend Per Share (DPS) Absolute dividend amount distributed per share; primary indicator of shareholder remuneration
Payout Ratio Percentage of earnings distributed as dividends; indicates sustainability and retention capacity
Operating Cash Flow Coverage Ratio of operating cash flow to dividend payments; measures cash generation adequacy
Return on Equity (ROE) Efficiency of equity capital utilization; higher ROE enables sustainable dividend growth - SECTORAL ANALYSIS AND COMPANY PERFORMANCE
3.1 Aviation Services: SATS Ltd.
Business Context and Transformation
SATS underwent a profound transformation during the pandemic period, emerging as a fundamentally restructured organization with enhanced global reach. The strategic acquisition of Worldwide Flight Services (WFS) in April 2023 represented a pivotal moment, positioning SATS as the world’s largest air cargo handler while initially generating skepticism among market analysts regarding integration risks and financial leverage.
Financial Performance FY2025
The financial year ending March 2025 validated management’s strategic vision:
Revenue increased 13% year-over-year to S$5.8 billion, driven by volume recovery and the WFS contribution
Profit after tax surged 4x to S$261 million, reflecting operational leverage and synergy realization
Dividend per share increased 233% to S$0.05, though payout ratio declined to a conservative 30.5%
Operating cash flow of S$1.1 billion provided 4.2x coverage of dividend obligations
Debt-to-equity ratio improved from 1.60 to 1.53, demonstrating deleveraging commitment
Strategic Implications
The substantial dividend increase, while impressive in percentage terms, reflects restoration rather than unprecedented growth. SATS had suspended dividends during the pandemic, making the reinstatement particularly meaningful for income-focused investors. The conservative payout ratio suggests management retains significant flexibility for further increases as integration synergies materialize and debt levels normalize.
3.2 Financial Markets Infrastructure: Singapore Exchange
Dividend Consistency and Compounding
Singapore Exchange exemplifies disciplined dividend policy characterized by remarkable consistency. Following a necessary 30% dividend reduction during the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, SGX has maintained or increased dividends every subsequent year, demonstrating management’s commitment to shareholder returns through multiple business cycles.
Financial Performance FY2025
For the financial year ending June 2025:
Dividend per share reached S$0.375, representing 9% year-over-year growth
Revenue totaled S$1.3 billion with diversified sources: Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities (25%), Equities Cash (30%), Equities Derivatives (27%), and Platform and Others (18%)
Payout ratio of 61.9% balanced current returns with capital retention for growth initiatives
Operating cash flow provided 2.1x coverage, ensuring dividend sustainability
Forward Guidance and Visibility
SGX management has provided unusually specific dividend growth guidance, projecting steady increases of S$0.0025 per share quarterly between FY2026 and FY2028. This transparency reflects confidence in achieving medium-term revenue growth targets of 6% to 8%, supported by expansion of the over-the-counter FX platform and product diversification across asset classes and geographies. Such explicit guidance is relatively uncommon in Singapore’s corporate landscape and signals strong conviction in the business model’s durability.
3.3 Banking Sector: DBS Group Holdings
Market Leadership and Capital Returns
As Singapore’s largest corporation by market capitalization, DBS Group Holdings occupies a unique position combining systemic importance with exceptional profitability. The bank has achieved record profit levels in recent years while maintaining robust capital ratios, enabling comprehensive shareholder return programs encompassing dividends, share buybacks, and periodic bonus share distributions.
Financial Performance 9M 2025
For the first nine months of 2025:
Total dividends and capital returns of S$2.25 per share (S$1.80 ordinary dividend plus S$0.45 capital return), representing 39% year-over-year increase
Net profit declined 1.0% primarily due to compressed net interest margins amid falling interest rates
Fee income increased by S$599 million (19% growth), more than offsetting S$310 million net interest income decline
Return on equity of 17.0% significantly exceeded domestic peers OCBC (12.9%) and UOB (9.0%)
Strategic Positioning in Rate Cycle Transition
DBS’s ability to increase dividends despite declining net profit demonstrates strategic adaptability and business model resilience. The substantial growth in fee-based income, particularly from wealth management activities projected to achieve mid-teens growth in 2026, indicates successful diversification away from interest rate sensitivity. Management’s forecast of stable total income in 2026 despite continued margin compression reflects confidence in non-interest revenue momentum.
3.4 Aerospace and Defense: ST Engineering
Order Book Visibility and Earnings Predictability
ST Engineering operates in sectors characterized by long contract durations and substantial order backlogs, providing exceptional visibility into future revenue and cash flow generation. The company’s total order book of S$31.2 billion as of June 2025, following S$9.1 billion in first-half order wins, offers investors confidence in multi-year dividend sustainability.
Financial Performance H1 2025
For the first half of 2025:
Dividend per share maintained at S$0.08, following 6% increase between 2023 and 2024
Revenue grew 7% year-over-year to S$5.9 billion, with balanced contribution from Defense and Public Security (45%), Commercial Aerospace (40%), and Urban Solutions (15%)
Net profit increased 20% to S$403 million, reflecting operational leverage
Operating cash flow of S$761 million provided 3.1x coverage of S$249 million dividend payment
Gross debt to EBITDA ratio improved from 5.2x (December 2022) to 3.2x (June 2025)
Growth Trajectory and Margin Expansion
Analyst projections anticipate continued growth from both Commercial Aerospace and Defense and Public Security segments over the next three years, supported by global defense spending increases and aviation recovery momentum. Additionally, expected margin expansion in Commercial Aerospace and Urban Solutions segments should drive profitability improvements enabling dividend increases while maintaining conservative payout ratios.
3.5 Real Estate Investment Trust: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust
REIT Structure and Interest Rate Sensitivity
As Singapore’s inaugural real estate investment trust, CICT owns a portfolio of prime retail and office assets including CapitaSpring (Grade A office), ION Orchard (luxury retail), and Raffles City (integrated development). The REIT structure mandates distribution of at least 90% of taxable income, ensuring consistent income generation for unitholders. However, REITs face particular sensitivity to interest rate movements affecting both property valuations and borrowing costs.
Financial Performance H1 2025
For the first half of 2025:
Distribution per unit increased 3.5% to S$0.0562, supported by improving interest rate environment
Distributable income rose 12.4% to S$412 million, benefiting from lower average cost of debt
Portfolio occupancy maintained at healthy 96.3% despite market headwinds
Rental reversions achieved 7.7% for retail portfolio and 4.8% for office portfolio
Aggregate leverage declined to 37.9%, providing 0.6 percentage point improvement versus December 2024
Asset Enhancement and Future Growth
CICT’s distribution growth prospects benefit from ongoing asset enhancement initiatives at Lot One Shoppers’ Mall and Tampines Mall, which should drive rental income increases upon completion. The combination of declining interest expenses and improving property-level performance positions the REIT favorably for continued distribution growth, particularly as the interest rate reduction cycle continues.
- GROWTH DRIVERS AND STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
4.1 Macroeconomic Catalysts
Interest Rate Environment
The pivot toward monetary easing by major central banks creates multiple tailwinds for dividend-paying equities. As government bond yields decline, the relative attractiveness of equity dividend yields increases, potentially driving capital reallocation from fixed-income securities to dividend stocks. This dynamic should support share price appreciation alongside income generation.
For leveraged entities such as CICT and SATS, declining interest rates directly improve profitability through reduced borrowing costs. CICT’s 12.4% increase in distributable income demonstrates this dynamic, as lower debt service expenses flow through to distributable cash flow.
Global Trade and Aviation Recovery
SATS and ST Engineering (Commercial Aerospace segment) benefit substantially from continued aviation sector recovery. Recent contract wins from Cathay Cargo and Emirates SkyCargo indicate sustained demand for cargo handling services, while increasing passenger traffic supports catering operations. The secular growth in air travel, particularly in Asia-Pacific markets, provides structural tailwinds for multi-year revenue expansion.
4.2 Company-Specific Growth Initiatives
SATS: Synergy Realization and Network Effects
The WFS acquisition creates significant cross-selling opportunities and operational synergies still in early-stage realization. As integration progresses, management should capture procurement efficiencies, technology platform consolidation benefits, and enhanced customer proposition through combined geographic reach. The conservative 30.5% payout ratio provides substantial headroom for dividend increases as these synergies materialize.
SGX: Product Innovation and Market Expansion
SGX’s medium-term revenue growth target of 6% to 8% rests on specific strategic initiatives including expansion of the over-the-counter foreign exchange platform and strengthening of product offerings across fixed income, currencies, commodities, and derivatives. The exchange benefits from network effects whereby increased participant activity attracts additional liquidity, creating a self-reinforcing growth dynamic. Geographic expansion, particularly in Southeast Asian markets, provides additional upside potential.
DBS: Wealth Management and Fee Diversification
DBS’s strategic emphasis on wealth management activities, projected to achieve mid-teens growth, addresses the structural challenge of net interest margin compression. Asia’s wealth accumulation trend, driven by economic development and demographic factors, provides sustained demand for sophisticated wealth management services. The bank’s digital capabilities and regional franchise position it advantageously to capture disproportionate market share in this high-margin business segment.
ST Engineering: Defense Modernization and Technology Integration
The substantial S$31.2 billion order book provides visibility, but sustained growth requires continuous order replenishment and margin enhancement. Global defense modernization programs, particularly in autonomous systems, cybersecurity, and command-and-control infrastructure, align with ST Engineering’s technological capabilities. The Urban Solutions segment’s focus on smart city applications positions the company to benefit from infrastructure digitalization trends across Asian markets.
CICT: Asset Optimization and Capital Recycling
CICT’s distribution growth depends on successful execution of asset enhancement initiatives and strategic capital recycling. The healthy 7.7% and 4.8% rental reversions in retail and office segments respectively indicate strong leasing momentum. Completion of ongoing enhancement projects at Lot One and Tampines Mall should unlock additional value through increased rental income and potentially higher property valuations.
- SOLUTIONS AND STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 For Corporate Management Teams
Enhance Dividend Policy Communication
Singapore Exchange’s explicit forward dividend guidance demonstrates the value of transparency in dividend policy. Other corporations should consider providing more detailed frameworks regarding payout ratio targets, dividend growth expectations, and conditions that might trigger policy adjustments. Such clarity reduces uncertainty for income-focused investors and can reduce equity cost of capital.
Optimize Capital Structure for Dividend Sustainability
SATS’s successful deleveraging while simultaneously increasing dividends illustrates optimal capital allocation. Companies should establish clear leverage ratio targets balanced against dividend commitments, ensuring financial flexibility to maintain distributions through business cycles. The improvement in SATS’s debt-to-equity ratio from 1.60 to 1.53 while increasing dividends 233% demonstrates that growth and prudent leverage management need not be mutually exclusive.
Diversify Revenue Streams to Reduce Cyclicality
DBS’s success in offsetting net interest income decline through fee-based revenue growth provides a template for earnings stability. Companies should systematically evaluate opportunities to develop complementary, counter-cyclical, or less interest-rate-sensitive revenue streams. This diversification enhances dividend sustainability by reducing dependence on any single revenue driver.
5.2 For Investors
Focus on Quality Metrics Beyond Dividend Yield
While high dividend yields attract attention, sustainable dividend growth requires strong underlying fundamentals. Investors should prioritize companies demonstrating:
Operating cash flow coverage exceeding 2.0x dividend payments, providing cushion against earnings volatility
Moderate payout ratios (40% to 70%) allowing both current income and dividend growth potential
Return on equity exceeding cost of capital, enabling self-funding of growth without equity dilution
Consistent dividend history through multiple business cycles, demonstrating management commitment
Construct Diversified Dividend Portfolios
The five companies examined span aviation, financial infrastructure, banking, aerospace and defense, and real estate sectors. This sectoral diversity reduces portfolio-level dividend risk, as different industries face distinct cyclical drivers. A balanced dividend portfolio should include:
Financial institutions benefiting from economic growth and wealth accumulation (DBS, SGX)
Industrial companies with long-duration order books providing earnings visibility (ST Engineering)
Recovery plays with improving fundamentals and conservative payout ratios (SATS)
Income-oriented structures with predictable distributions (CICT)
Monitor Interest Rate Cycle Positioning
Different companies benefit or suffer from interest rate movements to varying degrees. Investors should actively assess portfolio positioning relative to the interest rate cycle, overweighting companies with favorable positioning. In the current environment of declining rates, this favors leveraged entities (REITs, leveraged industrials) and companies with improving fee-based income offsetting margin compression (DBS).
5.3 For Policymakers and Regulators
Encourage Long-Term Investment Through Tax Incentives
Singapore’s current one-tier corporate tax system eliminates dividend taxation at the shareholder level for Singapore tax residents, encouraging dividend distributions. Policymakers should continue evaluating tax structures that align corporate behavior with long-term value creation rather than short-term earnings manipulation. Consideration could be given to enhanced incentives for dividend reinvestment plans that facilitate long-term capital accumulation.
Promote Dividend Policy Disclosure Standards
While Singapore’s regulatory framework requires disclosure of dividend distributions, more detailed guidance on dividend policy frameworks would benefit investors. Consideration could be given to encouraging companies to articulate their dividend policies explicitly, including target payout ratios, circumstances that might trigger policy changes, and the balance between dividends and other capital allocation priorities.
- IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND MARKET IMPLICATIONS
6.1 Impact on Shareholder Wealth
Direct Income Enhancement
For existing shareholders of these five corporations, the dividend increases translate directly to enhanced cash income. Assuming a hypothetical investor holding equal positions in all five companies at the beginning of 2025, their aggregate dividend income would have increased approximately 15% to 20% year-over-year, substantially exceeding inflation rates and providing real income growth. This income enhancement occurs without requiring any additional capital deployment or portfolio turnover.
Potential for Share Price Appreciation
Historical evidence demonstrates strong correlation between dividend growth and share price performance over multi-year periods. Companies increasing dividends typically exhibit share price appreciation exceeding non-dividend-paying peers, as dividend increases signal management confidence and attract income-focused capital. The combination of current yield and dividend growth creates total return potential substantially exceeding dividend yield alone.
6.2 Impact on Capital Markets
Sector Rerating Potential
Sustained dividend growth by blue-chip companies can drive sector-wide rerating as investors reassess earnings quality and management credibility. The demonstrated ability to increase dividends despite macroeconomic headwinds (DBS) or while managing significant acquisitions (SATS) reduces perceived risk premiums and can compress equity cost of capital across the sector.
Market Depth and Liquidity Enhancement
Attractive dividend yields and growth prospects attract institutional capital, including from regional and global investors seeking stable income sources. This capital inflow enhances market liquidity and can reduce bid-ask spreads, benefiting all market participants. Singapore’s position as a regional financial center becomes more attractive when domestic blue-chips demonstrate consistent dividend growth.
6.3 Broader Economic Impact
Wealth Effect and Consumption
Increased dividend income for retail investors and enhanced portfolio values create positive wealth effects supporting domestic consumption. While challenging to quantify precisely, the aggregate dividend increases from major blue-chip corporations inject substantial additional income into the economy, with multiplier effects as recipients spend or reinvest these proceeds.
Retirement Security Enhancement
For retirees and pre-retirees relying on investment income to supplement Central Provident Fund distributions, growing dividend streams provide enhanced financial security. This reduces potential dependency on government social support systems and enables more comfortable retirement lifestyles. The predictability of dividend income, particularly from companies like SGX providing explicit forward guidance, facilitates retirement planning and budgeting.
6.4 Corporate Governance Implications
Management Discipline and Accountability
Regular dividend commitments impose valuable discipline on management teams, requiring generation of actual cash rather than accounting earnings. This discipline reduces agency costs and potential for earnings manipulation, as dividend payments require real cash generation that cannot be obscured through accounting adjustments. The practice of increasing dividends creates implicit commitments to shareholders that management teams take seriously, enhancing accountability.
Signal of Financial Health
Dividend increases serve as credible signals of financial health that are costly to fake. Companies with deteriorating fundamentals or uncertain cash flows cannot sustainably increase dividends without jeopardizing financial stability. The willingness to commit to higher dividends therefore conveys valuable information to external stakeholders including creditors, suppliers, and employees, potentially reducing financing costs and enhancing business relationships.
- CONCLUSION AND FUTURE OUTLOOK
7.1 Key Findings Summary
This case study examined dividend growth strategies of five leading Singapore blue-chip corporations during 2025, revealing several critical insights:
Dividend increases ranging from 3.5% to 233% were uniformly supported by improved operational performance and sustainable cash flow generation, not financial engineering
Companies demonstrated remarkable adaptability to changing macroeconomic conditions, with DBS offsetting interest margin compression through fee income growth and CICT benefiting from declining interest rates
Conservative payout ratios and strong operating cash flow coverage provide substantial capacity for continued dividend growth in subsequent years
Sectoral diversity among dividend-growing companies enables portfolio construction balancing different economic exposure and risk characteristics
Explicit dividend guidance, as provided by SGX, enhances investor confidence and reduces uncertainty, potentially commanding valuation premiums
7.2 Sustainability Assessment
The sustainability of observed dividend growth depends on continued execution of company-specific strategic initiatives and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Several factors support optimistic outlook:
SATS’s conservative 30.5% payout ratio provides substantial headroom for increases as WFS integration synergies materialize and leverage normalizes
SGX’s explicit commitment to quarterly increases of S$0.0025 per share through FY2028 creates predictable income growth for investors
DBS’s fee income momentum should sustain profitability despite net interest margin pressures, supporting continued capital returns
ST Engineering’s S$31.2 billion order book provides multi-year revenue visibility supporting dividend sustainability
CICT’s asset enhancement initiatives should drive rental income growth while declining interest rates reduce financing costs
However, sustainability faces potential challenges including:
Macroeconomic recession could pressure earnings across all sectors, forcing dividend reductions
Excessive interest rate reductions potentially indicating economic weakness rather than strength
Geopolitical disruptions affecting global trade and aviation recovery (SATS, ST Engineering)
Real estate market corrections affecting CICT property valuations and refinancing capabilities
Regulatory changes in financial services affecting DBS and SGX business models
7.3 Forward-Looking Perspective
Evolution of Dividend Policy Frameworks
Singapore’s corporate landscape appears to be evolving toward more transparent and explicit dividend frameworks, as exemplified by SGX’s forward guidance. This trend likely reflects increasing sophistication of the investor base and growing competition for income-focused capital. Companies that articulate clear, credible dividend policies should command valuation premiums relative to peers with opaque or unpredictable distribution patterns.
Integration of ESG Considerations
Future dividend sustainability will increasingly incorporate environmental, social, and governance considerations. Companies facing significant climate transition risks or social license challenges may find dividend sustainability threatened regardless of current financial strength. Conversely, companies positioning themselves favorably on ESG dimensions may access lower-cost capital enabling sustained dividend growth. This dynamic warrants careful monitoring in sectors like real estate (climate adaptation) and defense (social considerations).
Technological Disruption and Business Model Evolution
The companies examined face varying degrees of technological disruption. SGX and DBS must continually adapt to fintech innovations and evolving market structures. ST Engineering operates in rapidly advancing aerospace and defense technology domains. SATS faces automation pressures in cargo handling and catering. Only companies successfully navigating these technological shifts can sustain long-term dividend growth. Investors should monitor innovation investments and digital transformation progress as leading indicators of future dividend capacity.
7.4 Final Observations
The dividend increases examined in this case study represent more than mere financial transactions; they embody management confidence in business resilience, strategic execution capability, and long-term value creation potential. For investors, these growing dividend streams provide both current income and signals of fundamental corporate health.
The diversity of sectors represented—aviation services, financial infrastructure, banking, aerospace and defense, and real estate—demonstrates that dividend growth opportunities span the economic spectrum. Each company faces distinct challenges and opportunities, yet all share common characteristics: strong market positions, capable management teams, and disciplined capital allocation frameworks.
As Singapore’s economy continues evolving and global investment landscapes shift, these blue-chip dividend growers will likely remain cornerstone holdings for income-focused investors seeking reliable, growing income streams. The case study’s findings suggest that such investors should focus not merely on current dividend yields but on the underlying business quality, cash flow sustainability, and strategic positioning that enable consistent dividend growth through multiple business cycles.
The combination of respectable current yields, demonstrated growth, and reasonable payout ratios positions these companies favorably for continued outperformance. As John D. Rockefeller observed, there is genuine pleasure in seeing dividends arrive—particularly when those dividends grow steadily over time.
APPENDIX: COMPARATIVE FINANCIAL METRICS
Company SATS SGX DBS ST Eng CICT
Dividend Growth (%) 233% 9% 39% 0% 3.5%
Payout Ratio (%) 30.5% 61.9% N/A ~50% ~90%
OCF Coverage (x) 4.2x 2.1x Strong 3.1x Strong
Revenue Growth (%) 13% Stable Stable 7% Growing
Key Catalyst WFS Integration Platform Expansion Wealth Management Order Book Lower Rates
Note: Data as of respective fiscal year-end 2025 or most recent reporting period. OCF = Operating Cash Flow. N/A indicates metric not directly comparable due to different reporting standards (banking sector).
DISCLAIMER
This case study is prepared for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial planning, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities mentioned herein. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Dividend payments and growth rates are subject to change based on company performance, board decisions, and market conditions.
Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. The information contained in this case study is derived from publicly available sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. The author and affiliated organizations disclaim all liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this material.
Securities investing involves risk including possible loss of principal. Dividend-paying stocks may reduce or eliminate dividend payments at any time. International investing involves special risks including currency fluctuation and political uncertainty.