STI 52-Week High | SCOTUS Tariff Ruling | Geopolitical Risk | Macro Outlook
- Executive Summary
On February 20, 2026, the Straits Times Index (STI) registered a new 52-week high of 5,024.57 intraday before closing at 5,017.60 (+0.32%, +16.04 points), with market turnover of S$1.98 billion across 1.41 billion shares. The session coincided with the United States Supreme Court’s landmark 6-3 ruling striking down the bulk of President Trump’s IEEPA-based tariffs — a decision with direct material relevance to Singapore’s export-dependent economy. However, breadth was mixed (304 decliners vs. 280 advancers), reflecting investor caution about the Trump administration’s immediate retaliation via Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and the escalation of U.S.-Iran military tensions driving oil prices to six-month highs. - Market Performance — February 20, 2026
2.1 STI Session Summary
Metric Value
STI Open 5,024.57
Intraday High (52-week high) 5,024.57
Intraday Low 4,993.43
STI Close 5,017.60
Session Change +16.04 pts (+0.32%)
Market Turnover (Value) S$1.98 billion
Market Turnover (Volume) 1.41 billion shares
Advancers / Decliners 280 / 304
52-week Low (Jan 2, 2026) 4,648.38
2.2 Key Blue-Chip Levels
Counter Close (SGD) Notes
DBS Group (D05) 57.95 Largest STI component (~17% weight)
OCBC Bank (O39) 21.62 Second-largest domestic bank
UOB (U11) 38.66 Third domestic bank
Singtel (Z74) 5.06 Session leader, +1.61%
Singapore Airlines (C6L) 6.88 High fuel cost sensitivity
ST Engineering (S63) 10.19 Defence/industrials
YZJ Shipbuilding (BS6) 3.62 Shipping sector play
2.3 Broader Indices
Index Close / Level
iEdge Singapore Next 50 1,521.21
iEdge S-REIT Index 1,103.22
iEdge APAC Financials Dividend Plus Positive close
iEdge SE Asia+ TECH ~4,867 (early session)
- The SCOTUS Tariff Ruling: Mechanics and Implications
3.1 The Decision
Chief Justice Roberts, writing for a 6-3 majority joined in full by Justices Gorsuch and Barrett, held that IEEPA does not grant the President authority to impose tariffs, as Congress did not delegate tariff-setting power through IEEPA’s emergency provisions. The ruling invalidated approximately 75% of Trump’s 2025 tariffs (per UBS analysis), covering the 10%+ reciprocal tariffs on virtually all U.S. trading partners, as well as China, Canada, and Mexico tariffs imposed on immigration and opioid grounds. Tariffs under Section 232 (steel, aluminium, autos) and Section 301 (China-specific) remain intact.
On the same day, the administration issued an Executive Order revoking IEEPA tariffs and simultaneously imposed a 10% surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 — escalated to the statutory maximum of 15% on February 21.
3.2 Fiscal and Refund Dimensions
Item Estimate / Source
Total IEEPA tariffs collected (through Jan 2026) ~$164.7 billion (Penn Wharton Budget Model)
IEEPA share of total customs duties ~52% by Jan 2026
Potential refund exposure $100–$175 billion (various estimates)
Refund disbursement timeline 12–18 months (TD Securities)
Post-SCOTUS effective U.S. tariff rate 6.7 pp pre-substitution (Yale Budget Lab)
Long-run GDP impact (SCOTUS scenario) U.S. economy persistently 0.1% smaller
3.3 Singapore’s Tariff Exposure
Singapore faced an effective IEEPA tariff rate of approximately 5.1% on U.S.-bound exports — the lowest in Asia. Approximately 61% of Singapore’s U.S. exports (by value) were exempt under IEEPA, including semiconductors, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and energy. Singapore’s domestic exports to the U.S. had nonetheless declined 28% year-on-year between April and August 2025 following Liberation Day. The ruling restores pre-tariff conditions for a significant portion of Singapore’s export base, although Section 122 re-imposition at 15% will apply to non-exempt categories.
- Macroeconomic Context: Singapore
4.1 GDP and Growth
Indicator Value
Full-year 2025 GDP growth (MTI revised) 5.0% (from advance estimate of 4.8%)
Q4 2025 GDP growth 6.9% year-on-year
2026 MTI growth forecast 2.0%–4.0% (upgraded from 1.0%–3.0%)
Primary 2025 growth drivers Electronics/semiconductors, wholesale trade, finance
Median monthly household income S$12,446 (+7.7% nominal, 2025)
Unemployment rate (Q4 2025) 2.0% (unchanged)
4.2 Monetary Policy (MAS)
The MAS maintained its S$NEER policy band slope at the most recent review, raising both core and headline inflation forecasts to 1%–2% for 2026. Three-month SORA is forecast to decline toward 1.2% by end-2026 as safe-haven flows suppress domestic rates. The Fed’s trajectory — markets pricing two cuts in 2026, with the first now expected in July (pushed back from June following the PCE data) — is the dominant external rate driver for Singapore.
4.3 Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX)
Full-year 2025 NODX grew 4.8%, substantially above the 2.5% official forecast. Enterprise Singapore’s 2026 NODX guidance of 0%–2% reflects anticipated tariff-related demand compression for Singapore’s key trading partners. The electronics segment remains structurally supported by AI semiconductor demand: integrated circuits, personal computers, and printed circuit boards all recorded strong double-digit growth in mid-2025 on AI-driven orders.
- Sectoral Impact Analysis
5.1 Banking (DBS, OCBC, UOB)
The three local banks represent approximately half the STI’s index weight. Their performance was stable on February 20. Key near-term sensitivity is the net interest margin trajectory in a declining rate environment, offset by resilient loan growth and capital markets fee income. Singapore’s banking sector is also a beneficiary of the broader STI re-rating, with institutional capital flows into Singapore equities lifting asset-management revenues. Potential refund-driven U.S. fiscal stimulus could modestly improve regional credit conditions.
5.2 REITs (S-REITs)
The iEdge S-REIT Index closed at 1,103.22. The sector remains in a constructive but selective phase. Industrial and logistics REITs benefit from supply chain diversification into ASEAN, but face risk from delayed capex decisions by multinationals under tariff uncertainty. Retail and hospitality REITs are supported by Singapore’s strong tourism recovery and domestic consumption. A mid-2026 Fed cut — now the base-case timing — would provide a meaningful valuation re-rating catalyst.
5.3 Shipping, Aviation, Industrials
YZJ Shipbuilding held at S$3.62 on continued order book strength. Singapore Airlines (S$6.88) faces a delicately balanced outlook: robust passenger demand and premium cabin pricing versus materially elevated jet fuel costs. WTI’s 6% weekly gain and potential Strait of Hormuz disruption represent the primary downside risk to airlines and the broader transport logistics sector. ST Engineering (S$10.19) benefits from defence spending uplift globally, a structural tailwind given elevated geopolitical risk.
5.4 Technology and AI Infrastructure
Singapore’s AI-adjacent exposure is primarily through semiconductor supply chains and data centre operations rather than large-cap domestic tech names. Hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending (expected to exceed $600 billion globally in 2026) sustains demand for Singapore’s electronics exports and positions the financial sector to capture AI-related fund management and venture capital mandates. The iEdge Southeast Asia+ TECH Index’s opening level near 4,867 reflects cautious positioning ahead of clarity on the final tariff architecture. - Geopolitical Risk: U.S.–Iran Tensions and Commodities
U.S. officials — including President Trump and Vice President Vance — signalled willingness to use military force to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, backed by the largest U.S. Middle East military deployment since 2003. WTI crude rose approximately 6% on the week to $66.50 per barrel (highest since August 2025). Gold surged to $5,125/oz (+2.5%) and silver to $84.50/oz (+9%), reflecting acute geopolitical risk pricing.
For Singapore, the primary transmission channels are energy import costs, aviation fuel, and freight economics. Any sustained Strait of Hormuz disruption — through which approximately 20% of global oil transits — would create a significant adverse supply shock. Secondary effects include insurance premium escalation for Singapore-flagged vessels, freight re-routing costs, and potential disruption to Singapore’s oil trading and refinery operations at Jurong Island. The SGD and Singapore government securities may attract safe-haven flows, partially offsetting equity headwinds. - Forward Outlook
7.1 Base Case (~55% probability)
Section 122 tariffs at 15% partially replace the vacated IEEPA regime but at a lower effective rate for Singapore given exempt categories. STI holds 4,900–5,200 through H1 2026 on banking earnings resilience and AI semiconductor demand. MAS maintains current policy. Oil normalises as Iran negotiations proceed. Two Fed cuts in H2 2026 provide modest tailwind to S-REIT valuations.
7.2 Upside Scenario (~25% probability)
Iran de-escalation, accelerated tariff refund disbursements providing global fiscal stimulus, and three Fed cuts in 2026 create conditions for a risk-on re-rating. STI could target 5,300–5,500. Singapore’s neutral-hub premium attracts incremental FDI and capital market mandates. NODX growth surprises to the upside of the 0%–2% guidance.
7.3 Downside Scenario (~20% probability)
Military conflict causing sustained Strait of Hormuz closure, further U.S. tariff escalation under Section 301 or bilateral authority, and U.S. stagflation (signalled by Q4 PCE at 3.0% and GDP at 1.4%) delaying Fed easing. STI retreats toward 4,600–4,700. Singapore’s manufacturing and logistics sectors contract. Regional risk-off sentiment weighs on capital market activity. - Risk Monitoring Framework
Risk Factor Transmission Channel Key Metric to Monitor
U.S. Section 122/301 tariff evolution NODX, electronics exports, manufacturing PMI Enterprise Singapore NODX monthly
U.S.–Iran military conflict Oil prices, freight rates, SGD safe-haven flows WTI, Brent, USD/SGD, freight indices
U.S. stagflation (PCE 3%, GDP 1.4%) Fed rate path, global risk appetite CME FedWatch, 10Y UST yield
China demand slowdown Regional trade, S’pore re-exports to HK/China China PMI, NODX to HK and China
MAS policy adjustment SGD NEER, domestic credit conditions MAS April quarterly policy statement
S-REIT sector stress Capital markets, banking fee income iEdge S-REIT Index, 3M SORA - Conclusion
February 20, 2026 stands as an inflection point for Singapore equity markets. The STI’s new 52-week high reflects the culmination of a structural re-rating grounded in 5.0% GDP growth, full employment, resilient banking earnings, and AI-driven export momentum. The SCOTUS ruling removes a meaningful structural headwind, with Singapore disproportionately insulated relative to regional peers by its high proportion of exempt exports and lowest-in-Asia effective tariff exposure.
Nevertheless, the administration’s immediate reimposition of tariffs under alternative statutory authorities confirms that trade policy uncertainty is now a permanent regime rather than a transient event. Singapore’s multi-lateral trade architecture — encompassing CPTPP, RCEP, and 25+ bilateral FTAs — provides significant structural resilience, but cannot fully immunise the economy against a sustained contraction in global trade volumes or a major oil supply shock from the Middle East.
The investment case for Singapore equities in 2026 rests on earnings delivery rather than multiple expansion: banking sector profitability, AI infrastructure supply chain exposure, and the Republic’s unmatched positioning as Asia’s foremost neutral financial and logistics hub. The primary tail risk — a Strait of Hormuz disruption — warrants careful portfolio construction, particularly within transport, aviation, and energy-intensive industrial names.