Markets Recap – March 13, 2026
1️⃣ What happened on Wall Street?
Index Close (Fri) Weekly change YTD low
Nasdaq‑100 –0.9 % 3rd straight weekly decline New YTD low
S&P 500 –0.6 % 3rd straight weekly decline New YTD low
Dow Jones –0.3 % 3rd straight weekly decline New YTD low
All three major U.S. benchmarks closed lower, extending a three‑week streak of losses and setting fresh year‑to‑date lows.
2️⃣ Oil – The main driver of the sell‑off
WTI crude: $98 / bbl (up ≈ 2.5 % on the day)
Brent crude: $103 / bbl (still above the $100 mark that was first breached since August 2022)
The surge follows the Feb 28 U.S.–Israel strike on Iran, which pushed WTI from roughly $67 / bbl to today’s $98 / bbl.
Policy response:
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a temporary waiver allowing allies to purchase Russian oil already “at sea.”
The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release a record 400 million barrels from its strategic reserves – the biggest drawdown in the agency’s history.
3️⃣ Inflation & the Fed in focus
Indicator Jan 2026 Market expectation YoY / MoM
PCE price index (Fed’s preferred gauge) 2.8 % ↑ 2.9 % ↑ +0.3 % MoM (vs. +0.4 % Dec)
Core PCE 3.1 % ↑ 3.1 % ↑ +0.4 % MoM
Q4 GDP (revised) 0.7 % Q/q 1.4 % Q/q (prior) —
The numbers beat the headline‑inflation forecast but the core reading stayed sticky at 3.1 % YoY. The 10‑year Treasury yield nudged higher to 4.29 %, its highest close since Feb 4.
4️⃣ Other market moves
Gold: $5,030 / oz (‑2 %)
Silver: $80.30 / oz (‑5.5 %)
U.S. Dollar Index: 100.44 (+0.7 %)
Bitcoin: $71,200 (up from $70k lows)
Corporate headlines
Adobe (ADBE) – –7 % after CEO Shantanu Narayen announced his exit after 18 years.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) – –14 % on weak FY‑2026 profit & sales outlook.
Meta Platforms (META) – –4 % as NYT reports a delayed AI‑model rollout.
Fertilizer majors (Mosaic, CF Industries, Nutrien) – slipped 6 %‑1 % after a rally on Hormuz‑related supply concerns.
📍 Why Singapore should sit up and take notice
Even though the headline numbers come from the U.S., the ripple effects are already being felt in Singapore’s market and economy. Below are the three most relevant channels:
1️⃣ Currency & Capital Flows
Factor Impact on SGD What to watch
Higher U.S. yields & stronger USD Downward pressure on SGD/USD (currently around 1.34) SGD futures, net foreign inflows/outflows, Singapore’s foreign‑exchange reserves
Fed likely to hold rates Stabilises the yield curve, but the “higher for longer” narrative keeps the dollar firm Minutes from the March 19‑21 Fed meeting, any dovish language
Takeaway: A firmer dollar compresses Singapore’s export‑margin when overseas revenues are USD‑denominated (e.g., semiconductor equipment, biotech). Investors may rotate into SGD‑denominated REITs that benefit from a lower cost of capital.
2️⃣ Commodity‑linked sectors
Asset Exposure in Singapore Current driver
Oil & Gas Singapore Exchange (SGX) oil futures, S&P GSCI‑linked ETFs, and the energy‑heavy logistics & tanker fleet Rising WTI/Brent → higher freight rates & bunker margins
Fertilizers Singapore‑listed Mosaic (MOS) & CF Industries (CF) ADRs, plus regional agribusinesss (e.g., Olam, Wilmar) Supply‑chain squeezes in the Middle East could tighten global nitrogen market, lifting prices
Precious Metals Gold & Silver ETFs (e.g., SPDR Gold Trust), local jewellery manufacturers Declining metal prices may reduce input costs for jewellers but also erode the “safe‑haven” appeal for investors seeking a hedge
Takeaway: The energy sector (e.g., Sembcorp, Keppel Corp) could see a temporary earnings boost from higher bunker rates. Conversely, fertiliser‑linked stocks may experience volatility as the Hormuz bottleneck resolves (or worsens).
3️⃣ Sector‑level equity implications
Segment Why it matters to Singapore investors Potential move
Tech & “Magnificent Seven” Many Singapore tech‑focused funds hold US‑listed AI & cloud stocks; lower US equity sentiment can drag local tech‑themed ETFs (e.g., SGX MSCI World Information Technology) Expect modest outflows; look for quality‑driven names with strong balance sheets.
Consumer & Retail Ulta’s slump signals softness in discretionary spending; Singapore’s own retail (e.g., CapitaLand Mall Trust) could feel headwinds if US consumer confidence weakens. Monitor foot‑traffic data and e‑commerce penetration rates.
REITs & Real Estate Higher Treasury yields translate into higher borrowing costs for REITs; however, a stronger dollar can make Singapore’s property assets more attractive to foreign investors seeking yield. Preference may shift toward core‑plus REITs with hedged exposure (e.g., Ascendas REIT, Mapletree).
Financials Banks (e.g., DBS, OCBC, UOB) see net‑interest‑margin pressure from a higher 10‑yr yield, but a stable SGD supports loan‑book profitability. Look for banks with balanced loan‑to‑deposit ratios and strong capital buffers.
🛠️ Actionable Takeaways for Singapore‑Based Investors
Strategy Rationale Example Instruments
Hedging Currency Risk With the USD ticking higher, protect overseas‑denominated holdings with FX forwards or SGD‑linked ETFs (e.g., iShares MSCI Singapore ETF). SGX SGD/USD forward contracts, DBS Currency‑Managed Fund
Tilt Toward Energy‑Logistics Rising oil prices lift bunker margins for Sembcorp, Keppel Offshore & Marine, and MISC. Direct stocks, Energy‑Logistics thematic ETFs
Selective Exposure to Fertiliser/Agri‑Materials Hormuz disruption creates a short‑to‑medium‑term price premium for nitrogen and phosphates. ADRs of Mosaic, CF Industries, Singapore‑listed Wilmar International (agri‑input exposure)
Stay Defensive on High‑Growth Tech US “Magnificent Seven” weakness could spill over to local tech‑themed funds. Favor cash‑rich, dividend‑paying tech names or global diversified ETFs. Nikkei 225‑linked funds, iShares MSCI World Information Technology ETF
Re‑balance REITs Higher yields pressure core REITs, but core‑plus with lease‑up pipelines (e.g., Ascendas REIT) may offer better upside. Ascendas REIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust
Monitor Fed Minutes Any hawkish turn (even a comment about “inflation still sticky”) could push yields higher, compressing valuations. Adjust exposure to interest‑rate‑sensitive sectors (banking, REITs) accordingly.
📅 Looking Ahead – The Calendar Matters
Date Event Potential impact on Singapore markets
Mar 19‑21 Federal Reserve meeting – widely expected “hold” on the policy rate (5.25‑5.5 %). If the Fed signals a longer‑than‑expected high‑rate environment, yields could climb, pressuring REITs and financials.
Mar 24 U.S. CPI (April) preview – data to be released on Apr 10. Early clues on inflation trajectory will shape the Fed’s narrative and, in turn, the SGD’s direction.
Apr 1 Singapore Q4 FY 2025 earnings season (local companies). Companies with heavy overseas exposure (e.g., ST Engineering, SATS) will be particularly sensitive to USD movements.
Apr 10 U.S. CPI – first major inflation reading after the PCE dip. A surprise upside could spark a risk‑off mood, pushing investors toward safe‑haven assets (gold, SGD) and away from equities.
Apr 15 IEA strategic‑reserve release – 400 mn bbl drawdown. If the release stabilises oil, energy‑linked equities may retreat; monitor tanker freight indexes for the secondary effect.
📣 Bottom Line
Equities are under pressure – three straight weeks of declines on the back of a sharp oil rally and a sticky‑core inflation picture.
Oil is the new market driver; any policy move that eases the supply shock (IEA release, U.S.‑Russia arrangements) could quickly shift sentiment.
Singapore investors should watch the USD‑SGD pair, re‑balance exposure to energy‑logistics and fertilizer‑related stocks, and keep a defensive stance on high‑growth tech until the Fed’s tone becomes clearer.
Stay tuned for our next post, where we’ll break down the Fed minutes as they come out and map out the precise impact on Singapore’s REIT landscape.
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