- The headline numbers (U.S. markets)
Index Friday close Weekly change YTD change*
Nasdaq‑100 –0.9% –1.3% –6%
S&P 500 –0.6% –1.6% –3%
Dow Jones –0.3% –2.0% –3%
YTD = “year‑to‑date” as of March 13, 2026.
All three major U.S. benchmarks posted fresh closing lows for the year and delivered their third straight week of declines. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq led the charge, but the “Magnificent Seven” (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla) were all in the red, with Meta falling ~4% after a New York Times story about a delayed AI rollout.
- Oil – the driver of market mood
WTI: $98 /bbl (up ≈2.5% on the day)
Brent: $102 /bbl (still above $100, the first time since August 2022)
The price jump follows the U.S.–Israel strike on Iran (Feb 28), which effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. The International Energy Agency announced a record release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, while the U.S. Treasury signalled a temporary “green‑light” for countries to buy Russian oil already at sea.
Bottom line: Oil is back in risk‑on territory, but the market is bracing for volatility as geopolitical risk premiums stay elevated.
- Inflation, Fed policy & the bond market
January PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge): 2.8% YoY (vs. 2.9% forecast)
Core PCE: 3.1% YoY (in line with expectations)
Q4 GDP (revised): 0.7% annualised (down from 1.4%)
The data shows inflation easing a touch, yet growth is losing steam. The 10‑year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.29%, its highest close since early February, indicating that bond investors still expect higher-for-longer rates.
The Federal Reserve meets next week; consensus is a hold on the policy rate, but the market will be watching the Fed Chair’s language for any clues about future tightening or a possible “soft landing” narrative.
- Commodities & the dollar
Gold: $5,030/oz (‑2%)
Silver: $80.30/oz (‑5.5%)
U.S. Dollar Index: 100.44 (+0.7%)
Bitcoin: $71,200 (up from $70k lows)
A stronger dollar and higher yields are weighing on precious metals, while crypto shows modest resilience—perhaps a safe‑haven play for risk‑averse traders.
- Corporate stories that moved the tape
Company Move Why it mattered
Adobe (ADBE) –7% CEO Shantanu Narayen to step down after 18 years – raises succession questions.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) –14% Soft FY profit and sales outlook; the biggest drag on the S&P 500.
Meta Platforms (META) –4% AI model rollout delayed – a reminder that even the biggest tech firms face execution risk.
Mosaic (MOS) / CF Industries (CF) / Nutrien (NTR) –6% / –4.5% / –1% Fertiliser stocks pulled back after a sharp rally on Hormuz‑related supply worries. - The Jones Act debate – a U.S. policy twist with global ripples
The Trump administration is mulling a 30‑day waiver of the Jones Act, which historically forces all domestic U.S. cargo to travel on U.S.-flagged vessels. The waiver would let foreign‑flag ships move fuel and other essentials between U.S. ports, aiming to mitigate the Hormuz disruption.
What does this mean for Singapore?
Shipping & logistics firms (e.g., Sembcorp Marine, Pacific International Lines) could see short‑term demand for charter services if the waiver is granted, as U.S. importers scramble for capacity.
Conversely, a temporary waiver may undermine U.S. shipbuilding subsidies, potentially reshaping global shipyard competition—a space where Singapore’s shipyards already compete fiercely.
For energy traders, the waiver could smooth U.S. fuel distribution, but the core price driver—Middle‑East geopolitics—remains unchanged.
- Why Singapore investors should care
7.1 Equity exposure
Asset class Current Singapore‑centric implication
U.S. tech With the Magnificent Seven under pressure, consider sector rotation into dividend‑paying U.S. consumer staples or into defensive Asian tech (e.g., Taiwan’s TSMC, Singapore’s Venture Corporation).
Energy & commodities Rising oil prices lift the energy segment of the STI (e.g., Sembcorp Industries, Keppel Corp). However, higher input costs could pressure industrial and transport earnings.
Fertiliser & agribusiness Companies like Wilmar International may benefit indirectly if higher fertiliser costs spur price pass‑through to end‑users; watch for margin pressure.
Financials A stronger USD and higher U.S. yields can compress the spread between Singapore and U.S. rates, potentially affecting DBS, OCBC, and UOB net interest margins.
7.2 Fixed‑income & currency outlook
SGD/USD: The dollar’s 0.7% rise pushes the SGD weaker (current SGD/USD ≈ 1.35). A softer SGD could boost tourism and export‑oriented firms, but it also inflates import costs, especially for petroleum and food.
Singapore bond market: With U.S. yields near 4.3%, Singapore’s 5‑year SGX‑SG bond yields (≈2.8% today) remain attractive for yield‑seeking investors, but currency risk must be managed via hedging.
7.3 Portfolio actions for a Singapore‑based investor
Strategy Rationale
Trim exposure to high‑flyer U.S. tech Valuations are still stretched, and earnings guidance is softening amid AI‑execution risk.
Add quality dividend stocks (e.g., CapitaLand, SIA, Mapletree) They provide cash flow stability and can help offset potential volatility from oil‑driven inflation.
Take a modest long position on oil‑linked equities Singapore‑listed energy players (Sembcorp, Keppel Offshore & Marine) stand to benefit from higher crude, but keep stop‑losses as geopolitics can flip quickly.
Consider a short‑term USD‑hedged bond fund This captures the higher U.S. yield premium while shielding the portfolio from a weakening SGD.
Stay alert on the Jones Act waiver If granted, it could signal greater U.S. flexibility in supply chains, potentially smoothing out oil logistics and tempering price spikes—an indirect relief for Singapore’s transport and logistics sector. - Looking ahead – What to watch
Event Date/Timeline Potential impact on Singapore
Fed Rate Decision Week of March 19 A hold (or a hint of a pause) could keep global funding costs stable, supporting Singapore’s property and REIT markets.
IEA Strategic Reserve Release Ongoing, with the first 400 m barrels expected next week If the release eases oil prices, the rally in energy stocks may taper.
Diplomatic developments in the Gulf Unpredictable A de‑escalation could quickly bring oil back to pre‑Feb 28 levels, resetting the risk‑on environment.
U.S. PCE data for February (due Mar 31) A surprise rise could push the Fed to tighten earlier; a further drop might fuel expectations of a rate cut later in the year.
TL;DR for the Singapore reader
U.S. equities are in a three‑week losing streak, led by tech.
Oil is back above $100 a barrel, driving inflation worries and prompting policy moves (strategic reserve release, potential Jones Act waiver).
Fed likely to hold rates, but the bond market is still priced for higher yields.
Singapore investors should consider rotating out of over‑valued U.S. tech, adding dividend‑heavy local stocks, and tasting a modest exposure to energy‑linked equities, all while hedging SGD exposure to the strengthening dollar.
Stay tuned—next week’s Fed meeting and the evolving Middle‑East situation will shape the market’s direction for the rest of the quarter.
Happy investing!