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Rental market price trends

by | Sep 17, 2025 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

Falling rents are reshaping the choices and priorities of renters across the country. After more than two years of steady declines, national rental prices dropped 2.2% year-over-year through August 2025, offering new opportunities for those seeking affordable housing. However, rents still remain 17% higher than they were before the pandemic, according to data from Apartment List and Zillow.


Certain major metro areas have experienced even sharper price cuts. For instance, Denver saw rents fall by 7%, while Austin reported a 6.5% decrease. Las Vegas and Atlanta also recorded declines of over 4%, signaling a broader trend in urban markets.

As rental prices have fallen, renter mobility has increased. In 2024, 21.6% of renters moved, up from 20.8% during the previous two years. The primary motivations include finding cheaper housing, securing more space, and exploring new neighborhoods.

Many renters are willing to make tradeoffs to save money. A recent survey found that 43% would give up onsite amenities for lower rent, and others are prepared to accept longer commutes or fewer services if it means paying less.

Despite these shifts in the rental market, homeownership remains out of reach for many. Only 30% of renters expect to buy a home within the next one to two years, while over 40% either have no immediate plans or are uncertain about buying.

In summary, the ongoing correction in the rental market is enabling more renters to upgrade their living situations or cut costs, though affordability remains a challenge compared to pre-pandemic levels. This evolving landscape highlights both new opportunities and persistent barriers for America’s renters.

Based on the US rental market trends and Singapore’s rental market data, here’s an in-depth analysis of the contrasting dynamics and potential impacts:

Contrasting Market Dynamics

US vs Singapore Rental Markets:

Impact Analysis for Singapore

1. Market Structure Differences

Singapore’s rental market operates under fundamentally different conditions:

Supply Constraints:

Demand Patterns:

2. Divergent Market Segments

Singapore shows a bifurcated market response:

Private Housing:

Public Housing (HDB):

  • HDB rentals projected +2–5% growth for 2025, with rental volume expected to range between 34,000 and 36,000 in 2025 housebellERA
  • Demonstrates resilience due to local demand and limited supply

3. Policy Environment Impact

Singapore’s government intervention creates different market dynamics:

Cooling Measures:

Supply Management:

4. Economic Implications for Singapore

Potential Benefits:

  • Tenant Advantage: Any rental moderation provides relief to residents facing high living costs
  • Economic Competitiveness: Lower rental costs could improve Singapore’s attractiveness to foreign talent and businesses
  • Consumer Spending: Reduced housing costs could free up disposable income for other sectors

Potential Risks:

  • Investor Confidence: Sustained rental declines might affect property investor sentiment
  • Construction Sector: Reduced rental yields could impact new development viability
  • Government Revenue: Lower property values and rental income could affect stamp duty and property tax collections

5. Structural Differences Limiting US-Style Declines

Geographic Constraints:

  • Singapore’s land scarcity prevents the supply response seen in US markets
  • No equivalent to suburban/rural alternatives that US renters can access

Regulatory Framework:

  • Strict foreign ownership rules and cooling measures create different demand dynamics
  • Public housing policies provide alternative rental options not available in most US markets

Economic Structure:

  • Singapore’s role as a financial hub creates more stable expatriate demand
  • Less exposed to the work-from-home trends affecting US office-centric cities

Outlook

While Singapore may experience some rental moderation, the structural supply constraints and policy environment make a sustained 25-month decline like the US unlikely. The rental market is expected to favour landlords in 2025 as leasing inventory falls Singapore Residential Rental Market Lookback (2024): Private Home Rents Moderate While HDB Rents Grow – ERA, suggesting that any downward pressure will be temporary and limited compared to the significant corrections seen in major US metropolitan areas.

The key difference is that Singapore’s rental market correction appears to be a cyclical adjustment rather than the structural oversupply correction occurring in parts of the US market.

The US and Singapore rental markets are undergoing contrasting shifts, each shaped by unique structural forces. While the US is experiencing an extended period of rent declines, Singapore’s recent moderation appears far more modest and cyclical.
In the US, rents have dropped for 25 consecutive months, falling 2.2% year-over-year as oversupply in several metro areas outpaces demand (Zillow, 2024). By contrast, Singapore’s rental prices dipped in Q1 2024 for the first time in three years, but this decline is recent and limited in scale (PropertyGuru Singapore).

Singapore’s tight supply remains a defining factor, with new private home completions set to fall to 5,850 units in 2025, down from 8,460 in 2024 (Real Estate Asia). The number of HDB flats reaching Minimum Occupation Period is also shrinking sharply, unlike the US where abundant new inventory has softened prices.

Demand patterns in Singapore are shifting. Private condo rents have edged down slightly — by just 0.1% in May 2024 — while HDB rents are forecast to rise by 2–5% in 2025 due to resilient local demand (ERA, Housebell). This bifurcation contrasts with broader US declines across all segments.

Government policies further distinguish the Singapore market. Ongoing property cooling measures and strict land supply controls create artificial scarcity, sustaining upward pressure on rents even as demand eases (Real Estate Asia).

Economically, any rental moderation in Singapore could benefit tenants and boost competitiveness, but sustained declines might dampen investor sentiment and reduce government revenues from property taxes and stamp duties.

Unlike the US, Singapore’s geographic constraints and regulatory framework prevent large-scale supply responses or suburban migration, making a prolonged correction unlikely.

In conclusion, Singapore’s rental market is poised for only mild adjustments rather than the deep, structural downturn underway in parts of the US. Tight supply and policy measures will likely limit the scope and duration of any declines, favoring landlords as leasing inventory contracts in 2025 (ERA).

Singapore Rental Market Scenarios: Structural vs Cyclical Forces

Based on the contrasting dynamics between Singapore’s supply-constrained market and the US oversupply correction, here are potential scenarios for Singapore’s rental market:

Scenario 1: “Soft Landing” (Most Likely – 60% probability)

Characteristics:

  • Private rental decline limited to 3-8% over 12-18 months
  • HDB rentals continue modest growth (+2-5% annually)
  • Market stabilizes by mid-2026

Key Drivers:

Market Dynamics:

  • Private Segment: Temporary oversupply from pandemic-era completions gets absorbed
  • HDB Segment: Falling MOP supply (6,974 units in 2025 vs 30,920 in 2022) Can Singapore Property Prices Come Down In 2025? supports rental growth
  • Geographic Split: CCR (Core Central Region) sees deeper corrections, OCR/RCR remain resilient

Implications:

  • Landlords face 1-2 years of pressure before conditions improve
  • Tenants get temporary relief but window closes by 2026
  • Property investment remains viable long-term

Scenario 2: “Extended Correction” (Moderate Risk – 25% probability)

Characteristics:

  • Private rentals fall 10-15% over 24-30 months
  • HDB rental growth stalls or turns slightly negative
  • Market recovery delayed until 2027-2028

Trigger Factors:

  • Global economic recession reduces Singapore’s financial sector employment
  • Permanent shift to hybrid work reduces expatriate postings
  • Regional competition (Hong Kong, Tokyo) intensifies for talent

Market Dynamics:

Policy Response Likely:

  • Government may relax cooling measures selectively
  • Potential foreign buyer incentives for property market
  • Enhanced economic stimulus to restore job market

Scenario 3: “Market Dislocation” (Low Risk – 10% probability)

Characteristics:

  • Private rentals decline 20%+ similar to Austin/Denver patterns
  • Broad-based rental market stress across all segments
  • Structural changes to Singapore’s economic model

Extreme Catalysts Required:

  • Major geopolitical shift affecting Singapore’s hub status
  • Fundamental change in Asia-Pacific business patterns
  • Severe domestic economic crisis

Market Breakdown:

  • Supply-Demand Imbalance: Even Singapore’s constrained supply becomes excessive
  • Investor Flight: Mass exit of property investors creates liquidity crisis
  • Government Intervention: Emergency measures to stabilize housing market

Note: This scenario contradicts Singapore’s historical resilience and structural advantages

Scenario 4: “Quick Rebound” (Moderate Chance – 15% probability)

Characteristics:

  • Current rental moderation ends within 6-12 months
  • Strong rental growth resumes (+8-12% annually)
  • Market tightness returns rapidly

Catalysts:

  • Faster-than-expected economic recovery in Asia
  • New government initiatives attracting foreign talent/investment
  • Supply constraints become more severe than anticipated

Market Acceleration:

Critical Differentiation from US Market

Structural Supply Constraints

Unlike US markets where developers can respond to demand with new construction:

Policy Buffer Mechanisms

  • Cooling measures can be adjusted to stabilize demand
  • Public housing provides alternative rental market
  • Foreign worker levy adjustments can manage demand flows

Economic Positioning

  • Singapore’s financial hub status creates baseline demand floor
  • Regional competition limited by regulatory/infrastructure advantages
  • Less vulnerability to remote work trends affecting US cities

Investment and Policy Implications

For Landlords:

  • Scenario 1-2: Hold and weather temporary correction
  • Scenario 3: Consider selective divestment
  • Scenario 4: Maintain current positions, consider expansion

For Policymakers:

  • Monitor expatriate employment trends closely
  • Prepare cooling measure adjustments for Scenarios 2-3
  • Maintain supply discipline to prevent structural oversupply

For Tenants:

  • Next 12-18 months: Window of opportunity for better terms
  • Beyond 2026: Return to landlord-favorable conditions likely

The fundamental conclusion remains that Singapore’s rental market operates under different structural constraints than the US, making sustained multi-year declines unlikely absent extraordinary circumstances.

Singapore’s rental market is shaped by unique structural constraints that set it apart from US cities, making dramatic multi-year declines unlikely except under rare, extreme conditions. Unlike the US, where rapid construction can lead to oversupply and sharp corrections, Singapore’s land scarcity and strict government controls create a permanent ceiling on new housing supply (Real Estate Asia, 2024). As a result, the most probable scenario is a “soft landing,” with private rents declining only 3-8% over the next 12-18 months while HDB rents continue modest growth of 2-5% annually, stabilizing by mid-2026.
This moderation is driven by new private completions dropping from 8,460 units in 2024 to about 5,850 in 2025, alongside gradual economic recovery and stable expatriate demand. In the public segment, HDB rental growth is supported by a shrinking pool of new Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) flats — just 6,974 units in 2025 compared to 30,920 in 2022 (PropertyGuru, 2024). The Core Central Region (CCR) may see deeper corrections, while suburban markets remain resilient.

In a less likely “extended correction” scenario (25% probability), a global recession or a permanent shift to hybrid work could reduce demand further, causing private rents to fall 10-15% over two years. Under this situation, government policy responses — such as relaxing cooling measures or introducing foreign buyer incentives — would become more probable to restore balance.

A “market dislocation” resembling the US experience is unlikely due to Singapore’s robust regulatory buffers and demand floor created by its financial hub status. Conversely, a “quick rebound” remains possible if Asia’s economies recover faster than expected or new policies attract additional foreign talent, pushing rents up 8-12% annually within a year.

Ultimately, Singapore’s market resilience is underpinned by controlled supply, proactive policy tools, and enduring economic strengths. For landlords and investors, weathering short-term corrections remains wise; for tenants, the next year offers rare opportunities for better terms before tightness returns post-2026. Policymakers should continue monitoring expatriate trends and maintain supply discipline to prevent any structural imbalances.

The Landlord’s Gambit

A Singapore Property Story

Chapter 1: The Correction

The email notification chimed softly on David Chen’s phone as he sipped his morning kopi at the Newton hawker center. Another tenant inquiry for his Novena condo—the third this week. Six months ago, he would have ignored such messages, confident that his premium unit would fill itself at his asking price of $4,200 monthly.

But this wasn’t six months ago.

“Interested in your 2-bedroom unit. Would you consider $3,600?” read the latest message.

David winced. That was nearly 15% below his previous rental rate. The American investment banking VP who had lived there for three years had returned to New York in March, citing his firm’s “regional restructuring.” Since then, the unit had sat empty for two months.

His property agent, Jennifer Lim, had been increasingly blunt in their conversations. “David, the market has shifted. Your Novena unit isn’t unique anymore. We have expatriate departures across the financial sector, and new completions in the area have given tenants more choices.”

From his coffee shop seat, David could see the towering cranes of three new condominium projects. For years, Singapore’s property market had felt invincible—constrained supply, steady demand from multinational corporations, government policies that kept speculation in check but supported genuine investment. Now, for the first time since 2009, he was questioning his strategy.

Chapter 2: The Policy Maker’s Dilemma

Fifteen kilometers away in the Urban Redevelopment Authority building, Senior Analyst Rachel Wong was presenting her quarterly rental market briefing to the Housing Policy Committee.

“Private rental prices have declined 4.2% year-to-date,” she reported, clicking through slides that showed red-trending arrows across multiple districts. “However, this differs significantly from the sustained corrections we’re observing in Austin, Denver, and Las Vegas, where rents have fallen 6-7% annually for over two years.”

Minister Tan leaned forward. “What’s driving our correction? And more importantly, is this temporary or structural?”

Rachel had been analyzing this question for weeks. “Three factors, Minister. First, expatriate departures due to corporate cost-cutting and remote work policies. Second, the completion of several large developments started during the pandemic boom. Third, local demand softening as Singaporeans delay household formation due to economic uncertainty.”

She paused, then continued: “However, our supply pipeline suggests this is cyclical. New completions will drop from 8,460 units this year to approximately 5,850 next year. The structural constraints haven’t changed—we’re still land-scarce, immigration-dependent, and supply-controlled.”

The committee exchanged glances. Unlike their counterparts in Austin or Atlanta, they couldn’t simply zone for more suburban developments. Every housing decision was constrained by Singapore’s 728 square kilometers.

“Recommendations?” asked Minister Tan.

“Monitor closely, but avoid knee-jerk policy responses. Our modeling suggests most scenarios lead to market recovery within 18-24 months. The exception would be a fundamental shift in Singapore’s economic positioning, which seems unlikely.”

Chapter 3: The Tenant’s Opportunity

Across the city in Tanjong Pagar, software engineer Priya Krishnan was scrolling through PropertyGuru with growing excitement. After two years of bidding wars and instant rejections, she was finally seeing options within her budget.

The one-bedroom unit she’d coveted near her office—previously $3,500 and always “just taken”—was now listed at $3,100 with the agent actively responding to inquiries. The landlord had even agreed to include utilities and WiFi.

“I think we should move fast,” her boyfriend Marcus said, looking over her shoulder. “This feels like a window that won’t stay open long.”

Priya nodded, but she’d learned to think strategically about Singapore’s property market during her three years working for a local fintech startup. “Jennifer at my office moved here from San Francisco. She says when rental markets correct there, they can stay down for years. Maybe we should wait and see if prices fall further.”

Marcus pulled up news articles about the U.S. rental market. “Look at this—Austin rents down 6.5%, Denver down 7%. Maybe Singapore will follow the same pattern.”

But Priya had her doubts. “Singapore isn’t Austin, Marcus. When I first moved here, my colleagues explained how different the market is. The government controls land supply, foreign buyers face restrictions, and there’s always baseline demand from the financial sector and regional headquarters.”

She bookmarked several units but hesitated to commit. The data scientist in her wanted to see more evidence of sustained decline before making her move.

Chapter 4: The Landlord’s Decision

Three weeks later, David Chen sat in Jennifer Lim’s Orchard Road office, staring at a market analysis report that painted two very different futures.

“Scenario One,” Jennifer explained, “assumes this is temporary. Corporate relocations resume, new supply gets absorbed, and by 2026 we’re back to a landlord’s market. In that case, accepting $3,600 now costs you maybe $1,200 over 24 months versus staying empty.”

She flipped the page. “Scenario Two: this becomes a structural correction. Work-from-home policies become permanent, Singapore loses some regional headquarters to lower-cost locations, and we see sustained rental pressure. Then your $3,600 tenant today might be asking for $3,200 next year.”

David had been researching international markets obsessively. The Austin and Denver corrections seemed to be accelerating, not stabilizing. But those cities could sprawl outward—Singapore couldn’t.

“What would you do, Jennifer?”

She smiled knowingly. “I’ve been in this market for fifteen years, David. I’ve seen corrections before—2003, 2009, 2015. Singapore always recovers because our fundamentals always reassert themselves. Land scarcity, economic positioning, government stability. The question is whether you can afford to wait it out.”

David thought about his mortgage payments, his daughter’s university fees, his own job at a multinational that had been discussing “optimization” in recent months. Scenario planning was a luxury for those with deep cash reserves.

“Let’s accept the $3,600,” he decided. “Better a tenant paying below market than no tenant at all.”

Chapter 5: The Cycle Turns

Eighteen months later, Priya Krishnan was regretting her caution. The Tanjong Pagar unit she’d been watching had indeed dropped to $2,900 by late 2025—but only briefly. By March 2026, as new completions slowed and expatriate hiring resumed, rental listings had become scarce again.

Her current landlord had just informed her of a 12% increase for lease renewal. “Market rate,” he’d explained with a shrug that suggested he’d weathered the correction and was ready to recoup losses.

David Chen, meanwhile, was fielding three inquiries daily for his Novena unit. His tenant had departed for a company transfer, and Jennifer was confident they could achieve $4,500 monthly—8% above his pre-correction rate.

“Supply and demand,” Jennifer had reminded him during their recent coffee. “Singapore’s fundamentals always win in the end. We had our temporary correction, the market cleared, and now we’re back to structural tightness.”

At the URA building, Rachel Wong was preparing her latest brief with a mixture of vindication and concern. Her “cyclical adjustment” forecast had proven correct, but the speed of the recovery was creating new pressures.

“HDB rental volumes are approaching record highs,” she noted in her presentation. “Private rental vacancy rates have dropped below 5% across all segments. We may need to consider modest supply responses to prevent overheating.”

Epilogue: The Persistent Truth

The Singapore property market’s 2024-2026 cycle had played out exactly as the structural analysis predicted. Unlike Austin or Denver, where oversupply corrections could persist for years, Singapore’s constraints had reasserted themselves with mechanical precision.

Land remained scarce. The economy remained globally connected. The government remained committed to supply discipline. And demand, after its temporary weakness, had returned with characteristic resilience.

For David, Priya, and Rachel—each representing different stakeholders in Singapore’s rental ecosystem—the lesson was clear: understanding the difference between cyclical corrections and structural changes wasn’t just academic theory. It was the key to navigating one of the world’s most unique property markets.

As David collected his first $4,500 rental payment from his new tenant—a risk management director at a growing crypto exchange—he reflected on the past two years. The American markets might experience multi-year corrections, but Singapore’s rental story would always be different.

Structural constraints, it seemed, were both the market’s greatest limitation and its most reliable protection.

The End

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