Singapore’s rental market has undergone dramatic transformation from 2020-2025, experiencing one of the most volatile periods in its history. This report examines real-world case studies across different tenant profiles and provides a comprehensive outlook for 2025-2027, analyzing supply dynamics, policy impacts, and emerging trends in one of the world’s most expensive rental markets.
Part I: Case Studies – Real Tenants, Real Challenges
Case Study 1: The Young Professional – Sarah Chen
Profile:
- Age: 28, Marketing Manager
- Monthly Salary: SGD 5,500
- Status: Single, previously living with parents
- Location Priority: Near office (Raffles Place) and nightlife
Timeline Journey:
2020 (Pre-Pandemic):
- Rented: 1-bedroom condo, River Valley
- Monthly rent: SGD 2,800
- % of income: 51%
- Experience: Easily found options, negotiated 1 month free rent on 2-year lease
2021 (Pandemic Low):
- Lease renewal: SGD 2,400 (-14%)
- % of income: 44%
- Experience: Landlord proactively offered reduction to retain tenant, market flooded with empty units
2022 (The Shock):
- Lease renewal attempt: Landlord wanted SGD 3,600 (+50%)
- Had to move: Found 1-bedroom in Novena for SGD 3,200
- % of income: 58%
- Experience: “I viewed 15 units in 3 weeks. Each viewing had 4-5 other people. Landlords were receiving multiple offers above asking price. I had to decide within hours or lose it.”
2024 (Current):
- Current rent: SGD 3,100 (slight decrease at renewal)
- % of income: 56%
- Experience: Considering moving back with parents or finding a roommate
Key Insights:
- Violated the “30% rule” throughout entire rental journey
- Experienced 44% rent increase peak-to-peak (2021-2024)
- Quality of life significantly impacted: reduced discretionary spending, delayed savings goals
- Psychological toll: constant anxiety about renewals, feeling “priced out” of independence
Sarah’s Outlook: “I’m considering buying a resale 2-room flat instead. My monthly mortgage would be around SGD 2,000, and at least I’m building equity. Renting feels like throwing money away when it’s this expensive.”
Case Study 2: The Expat Family – The Johnsons
Profile:
- Ages: 38 and 36, both working (finance and tech)
- Combined income: SGD 28,000
- Status: Married with 2 children (ages 6 and 9)
- Location Priority: Good schools, expat community, space for family
Timeline Journey:
2019 (Arrival in Singapore):
- Rented: 3-bedroom condo, East Coast
- Monthly rent: SGD 6,000
- % of income: 21%
- Experience: Company provided SGD 4,000 housing allowance, multiple options available
2021 (Pandemic Opportunism):
- Negotiated renewal: SGD 5,200 (-13%)
- % of income: 19%
- Experience: “Best rental market we’ve seen. Landlords were desperate. We got fresh paint, new appliances, and lower rent.”
2022 (The Scramble):
- Lease renewal: Landlord wanted SGD 7,800 (+50%)
- Negotiated to: SGD 7,200 (+38%)
- % of income: 26%
- Experience: “We had no choice. Moving the kids mid-school year wasn’t an option. Our company reduced housing allowances to SGD 3,000. We’re now paying SGD 4,200 out of pocket.”
2024 (Stability but Stretched):
- Current rent: SGD 7,400 (slight increase)
- % of income: 26%
- Company allowance: Reduced to SGD 2,500
- Out-of-pocket: SGD 4,900
Key Insights:
- Even with high household income, felt rental squeeze
- Company housing allowances didn’t keep pace with market
- Location flexibility limited by children’s schooling
- Considered leaving Singapore in 2022 due to costs
Mr. Johnson’s Outlook: “We’re committed until the kids finish primary school, but we’re saving less than we planned. The retirement picture has changed. If rents keep climbing, we might relocate to Bangkok or Kuala Lumpur for secondary school years.”
Case Study 3: The Upgrader Couple – David and Mei Ling
Profile:
- Ages: 35 and 33
- Combined income: SGD 15,000
- Status: Married, own a 4-room BTO in Punggol
- Situation: Renting out their flat while renting closer to city for work
Timeline Journey:
2020 (The Plan):
- Own: 4-room BTO Punggol (fully paid, no mortgage)
- Rented out for: SGD 2,400/month
- Rented: 2-bedroom condo, Tiong Bahru for SGD 3,200/month
- Net cost: SGD 800/month for lifestyle upgrade
- % of income: 5%
- Rationale: “We both work in Tanjong Pagar. Commuting from Punggol was killing us – 90 minutes each way. This was a no-brainer.”
2022 (Unexpected Windfall and Pain):
- Rental income increased: SGD 3,400/month (+42%)
- Their rent increased: SGD 4,200/month (+31%)
- Net cost: SGD 800/month (same!)
- % of income: 5%
- Experience: “We got lucky. The market rose for both sides. But we were terrified during renewal negotiations.”
2024 (Decision Time):
- Rental income: SGD 3,300/month (slight softening)
- Their rent: SGD 4,100/month (stayed relatively stable)
- Net cost: SGD 800/month
- % of income: 5%
- Consideration: Move back to Punggol or continue lifestyle?
Key Insights:
- Creative strategy to “upgrade” location without buying
- Worked because they owned a rental-yielding asset
- Vulnerable to market timing mismatches
- Lifestyle quality vs. wealth accumulation trade-off
Mei Ling’s Perspective: “In 2024, we’re thinking about moving back to Punggol. Work-from-home is now 3 days a week, so the commute pain is less. We could bank that SGD 3,300 monthly rental income – that’s SGD 40,000 a year we could invest for our future kids’ education or our next property.”
Case Study 4: The Fresh Graduate – Rajesh Kumar
Profile:
- Age: 24, Software Engineer
- Monthly Salary: SGD 4,200
- Status: Single, parents live in Woodlands
- Location Priority: Affordable, near tech hub (one-north area)
Timeline Journey:
2022 (Job Start):
- Decision: Stay with parents in Woodlands
- Cost: SGD 0
- Commute: 75 minutes each way
- Experience: “I wanted independence but couldn’t afford anything near work. Looked at rooms for SGD 1,200-1,500 but that’s 30-36% of my salary just for a room.”
2023 (The Compromise):
- Rented: Common room in Buona Vista HDB (shared with 3 others)
- Monthly rent: SGD 950
- % of income: 23%
- Experience: “Found it through a colleague. The flat is old, I share a bathroom with one other person, and privacy is limited. But I save 2.5 hours daily on commuting.”
2024 (Reevaluation):
- Current rent: SGD 1,050 (landlord increased)
- % of income: 25%
- Salary increased to: SGD 4,800
- Consideration: Get own studio or continue room rental?
Analysis:
- Studio apartments near one-north: SGD 2,400-2,800 (50-58% of income)
- Better room in condo: SGD 1,400-1,600 (29-33% of income)
- Current situation: Affordable but quality-of-life compromises
Key Insights:
- Room rental is the only viable option for many young professionals
- Privacy, dating life, and independence significantly impacted
- Would need 50%+ salary increase to afford own unit near work
- Considering BTO application but 4-5 year wait
Rajesh’s Outlook: “I’m applying for BTO with my girlfriend. Even if we get it in 2025, we won’t move in until 2029-2030. That’s 5-6 more years of room rental or expensive whole-unit rental. My friends in tech in the US or Europe have their own apartments at my age. Here, it feels like you can’t be a real adult until you’re 30.”
Case Study 5: The Retiree Landlord – Mrs. Tan
Profile:
- Age: 68, Retired Teacher
- Property: 3-bedroom condo in Serangoon (fully paid)
- Situation: Lives with daughter, rents out condo for retirement income
Timeline Journey:
2019-2020:
- Monthly rental income: SGD 3,200
- Tenant: Expat family, stable, 2-year lease
- Experience: “They were good tenants. Never late on rent. But in 2020, the husband lost his job and they had to break the lease early. I didn’t charge them penalty – times were hard.”
2021 (Void Period):
- Unit vacant: 4 months
- Lost income: SGD 12,800
- Had to reduce asking price: SGD 2,800 (-13%)
- Experience: “Very scary time. I depend on this income for my medical expenses and to help my grandchildren. I was getting lowball offers of SGD 2,400-2,500.”
2022 (Market Reversal):
- New tenant: Young expat couple
- Monthly rent: SGD 4,200 (+50% from pandemic low)
- Experience: “I couldn’t believe it. I listed at SGD 3,800 hoping for SGD 3,500. Within a week, I had 12 inquiries and 3 people offering more than asking price.”
2024 (Moral Dilemma):
- Lease expiring
- Market rent: SGD 4,000-4,300
- Current tenants: Want to renew, offering SGD 3,900
- Decision: Renew at SGD 4,000 (tenants accepted)
Key Insights:
- Landlords also face uncertainty and risk
- Decent landlords balance profit with tenant relationships
- Rental income critical for retirees without strong CPF
- Market volatility impacts retirement planning
Mrs. Tan’s Perspective: “In 2024, I could have gotten SGD 4,300 with new tenants, but my current tenants are good people – always respectful, keep the place clean, pay on time. The extra SGD 300 monthly (SGD 3,600 yearly) isn’t worth the risk of bad tenants or void period. Plus, I sleep better at night knowing I’m not greedy.”
Part II: Market Outlook 2025-2027
Current State of Play (Late 2024 – Early 2025)
Headline Numbers:
- Private residential rents: Up 25-30% from 2019 levels (despite 2024 softening)
- HDB rents: Up 30-40% from 2019 levels
- Vacancy rates: Rising to 6-7% (from 5% in 2023)
- New supply: 20,000+ private units completing in 2024-2025
- Rental volume: Down 15-20% year-on-year
What Changed in 2024:
- Expat inflows normalized after post-COVID surge
- New condo completions added supply
- Cooling measures dampened investor sentiment
- Economic uncertainty (global slowdown, tech layoffs) reduced demand
- Some expats left due to high costs
Market Sentiment:
- Landlords: Defensive, accepting that 2022-2023 prices were peak
- Tenants: Cautiously optimistic but not expecting dramatic drops
- Agents: Predicting 5-10% further softening in 2025
Supply Analysis: The Pipeline
Private Residential Completions:
- 2024: ~20,000 units
- 2025: ~22,000 units (estimated)
- 2026: ~18,000 units (estimated)
- 2027: ~15,000 units (estimated)
Geographic Distribution:
- OCR (Outside Central Region): 60% of new supply
- RCR (Rest of Central Region): 25% of new supply
- CCR (Core Central Region): 15% of new supply
What This Means:
- 2025-2026: Sustained supply pressure, particularly in OCR areas like Jurong, Woodlands, Punggol
- CCR (Districts 9, 10, 11): Less supply impact, rents may stay sticky
- RCR (Districts 5, 7, 8, 14, 15): Moderate softening expected
HDB Supply:
- 20,000+ BTO flats launching annually 2024-2026
- But: 4-5 year construction timeline means rental relief only from 2028+
- Shorter-term impact: More people waiting for BTO = continued rental demand
Demand Analysis: Who’s Renting?
1. Expat Population (30-35% of rental demand)
Current Trends:
- Post-COVID surge (2021-2023) has normalized
- Tech sector retrenchments reducing expat inflows
- Cost sensitivity increasing – more expats negotiating or relocating to regional hubs
- Family-friendly policies maintaining some appeal
2025-2027 Outlook:
- Bearish Scenario: If global recession hits, expat numbers could drop 10-15%, significantly pressuring high-end rentals
- Base Case: Flat to slight growth (+2-3% annually), supporting current rent levels
- Bullish Scenario: Singapore’s safe haven status drives inflows despite costs, rents stabilize or increase slightly
2. Young Singaporeans (25-30% of rental demand)
Current Trends:
- Highest percentage ever choosing to rent vs. live with parents
- Delayed marriage = longer rental periods
- Work-from-home reducing tolerance for long commutes
- BTO wait times forcing 4-5 years of rental
2025-2027 Outlook:
- Demand stays strong but price-sensitive
- Shift toward more affordable room rentals or shared housing
- Could support smaller unit rents but pressure on larger units
3. Singaporean Upgraders/Temporary Renters (15-20% of demand)
Current Trends:
- Couples renting while waiting for BTO
- Homeowners renting out own place and renting closer to work
- Divorce/separation creating rental demand
2025-2027 Outlook:
- Stable demand segment
- Rent-to-rent arbitrage less attractive if rental yields compress
- Some may return to owned properties if price differential narrows
4. Permanent Residents (15-20% of demand)
Current Trends:
- Waiting for PR approval or citizenship
- Waiting for BTO eligibility or completion
- Higher-income PRs preferring rental flexibility
2025-2027 Outlook:
- Government PR approvals moderating = slower demand growth
- Longer BTO wait times keep this segment in rental market longer
Scenario Planning: Three Possible Futures
SCENARIO 1: “Soft Landing” (55% probability)
Assumptions:
- Singapore economy grows 2-3% annually
- Expat population stays stable or grows modestly
- No major policy shocks
- Supply completions proceed as scheduled
Rental Trajectory:
- 2025: -5% to -8% from 2024 peak
- 2026: -2% to -4% from 2025
- 2027: Flat to +2% (stabilization)
- Total decline from peak: 10-12%
What This Looks Like:
- Private 1-bedroom condo: SGD 3,200 (2024) → SGD 2,900 (2025) → SGD 2,800 (2026) → SGD 2,850 (2027)
- HDB 4-room: SGD 3,000 (2024) → SGD 2,750 (2025) → SGD 2,650 (2026) → SGD 2,700 (2027)
- CCR luxury units: Minimal impact, -3% to -5% total
Winners:
- New renters entering market in 2025-2026
- Tenants with expiring leases in softening segments
- Room rental market stays competitive but improves slightly
Losers:
- Landlords who bought at 2021-2022 peaks expecting sustained high rents
- Property investors with over-leveraged portfolios
- Retirees depending on rental income (10-12% real income reduction)
SCENARIO 2: “Deep Correction” (25% probability)
Assumptions:
- Global recession impacts Singapore significantly
- Major tech sector retrenchments continue
- Expat population declines 10-15%
- New supply surge overwhelming demand
- Government implements rent control or tenant protection policies
Rental Trajectory:
- 2025: -12% to -15% from 2024 peak
- 2026: -8% to -10% from 2025
- 2027: -3% to -5% from 2026
- Total decline from peak: 20-25%
What This Looks Like:
- Private 1-bedroom condo: SGD 3,200 (2024) → SGD 2,750 (2025) → SGD 2,500 (2026) → SGD 2,400 (2027)
- HDB 4-room: SGD 3,000 (2024) → SGD 2,550 (2025) → SGD 2,300 (2026) → SGD 2,200 (2027)
- CCR luxury units: -12% to -15%, finally feeling pressure
Winners:
- Renters at all levels – significant affordability improvement
- Young professionals can finally afford own units
- Downward pressure reduces rental burden below 30% threshold for many
Losers:
- Landlords facing 20-25% income reduction
- Property investors with negative cash flow
- Some forced sales in investment property market
- Construction sector (developers may delay projects)
Policy Implications:
- Government may need to support property market
- Could see temporary loosening of cooling measures
- Rental assistance programs might expand
SCENARIO 3: “Renewed Surge” (20% probability)
Assumptions:
- Singapore becomes safe haven amid global instability
- Major influx of Chinese/Hong Kong capital and residents
- Tech sector rebounds strongly
- New supply absorbed quickly by demand
- Government pro-growth policies attract businesses
Rental Trajectory:
- 2025: Flat to -2% (brief pause)
- 2026: +5% to +8% (renewed growth)
- 2027: +6% to +10% (acceleration)
- Total change from peak: +10% to +15%
What This Looks Like:
- Private 1-bedroom condo: SGD 3,200 (2024) → SGD 3,150 (2025) → SGD 3,400 (2026) → SGD 3,700 (2027)
- HDB 4-room: SGD 3,000 (2024) → SGD 2,950 (2025) → SGD 3,200 (2026) → SGD 3,500 (2027)
- CCR luxury units: +15% to +20%, strong demand from wealthy migrants
Winners:
- Landlords who held through 2024-2025 softening
- Property investors with long-term view
- Singapore’s position as regional hub strengthens
Losers:
- Renters face renewed affordability crisis
- Social inequality widens
- Brain drain as young Singaporeans leave for affordable cities
- Political pressure on government to intervene
Policy Implications:
- Government forced to consider rent controls
- Accelerated BTO programs
- Possible restrictions on foreign rental demand
- Social housing initiatives expanded
Segment-Specific Outlooks
High-End Luxury (SGD 8,000+/month)
Current State: Resilient, minimal softening in 2024
2025-2027 Outlook:
- Most stable segment – wealthy tenants less price-sensitive
- Dependent on global wealth migration patterns
- CCR districts (9, 10, 11) and Sentosa Cove maintain premiums
- Vacancy risk: High-end units can sit empty for months
- Expected movement: -3% to +5% (low volatility)
Key Drivers:
- Family office growth in Singapore
- Hong Kong/China outflows
- Regional instability driving safe haven demand
Mid-Range Expatriate (SGD 4,000-7,000/month)
Current State: Seeing softening, 5-10% off 2023 peaks
2025-2027 Outlook:
- Most vulnerable to economic cycles
- Corporate housing budgets under pressure
- Competition from Singaporean upgraders
- RCR districts most exposed
- Expected movement: -8% to -12% in soft landing, -15% to -20% in deep correction
Key Drivers:
- Multinational hiring trends
- Corporate cost-cutting measures
- Expat package generosity
Local Mass Market (SGD 2,000-4,000/month)
Current State: Still elevated, slight softening in OCR areas
2025-2027 Outlook:
- Sustained demand from BTO waiters
- New supply in OCR providing relief
- Young professionals forming largest demand segment
- Expected movement: -6% to -10% as new supply hits
Key Drivers:
- BTO launch volumes and timelines
- Young adult household formation rates
- Marriage rates and timing
Room Rental Market (SGD 700-1,500/month)
Current State: Tight, limited relief even in 2024
2025-2027 Outlook:
- Demand stays strong – affordability forces people into room rentals
- Supply constrained – homeowners preferring whole unit rentals
- Regulatory uncertainty (subletting rules)
- Expected movement: -3% to -5% (most inelastic segment)
Key Drivers:
- Fresh graduate salary levels
- Immigration of foreign workers
- Student population (universities, international schools)
Policy Wildcards: What Could Change Everything
1. Rent Control or Rent Stabilization
Probability: 15-20% by 2027
Trigger: If rents surge again or deep correction causes social unrest
Possible Forms:
- Limits on year-over-year rent increases (e.g., max 5% annually)
- Rent tribunals for dispute resolution
- Mandatory longer notice periods for increases
Impact:
- Short-term: Tenant relief
- Long-term: Reduced rental supply, landlords exit market
- Property values could be affected
2. Build-to-Rent (BTR) Development
Probability: 40-50% by 2027
Description: Government or institutional investors develop purpose-built rental housing
Benefits:
- Professional management
- Stable, predictable rents
- Better tenant protections
- Quality standards
Impact:
- Increased supply in mid-range segment
- Downward pressure on private rentals
- More affordable options for young professionals
3. Relaxed Subletting Rules
Probability: 30% by 2027
Current: HDB owners can only rent out whole flat or get approval for room rental (with restrictions)
Potential Change: Easier room rental approvals, especially for BTO waiters
Impact:
- Significant increase in room rental supply
- Room rents could drop 10-15%
- Relief for young professionals
4. Foreigner Rental Restrictions
Probability: 10% by 2027 (but higher if nationalistic sentiment grows)
Possible Form: Quotas on non-citizen tenants in certain areas or developments
Impact:
- Reduced demand, downward rent pressure
- Could harm Singapore’s attractiveness
- Negative for property values
5. Accelerated BTO Supply
Probability: 70% (already happening)
Government Target: 100,000 units over 5 years (2024-2028)
Impact:
- Helps from 2028+ onward (due to construction lag)
- Reduces 2026-2027 rental demand as people wait
- Long-term rental market shrinkage
Part III: Strategic Recommendations
For Tenants:
If Your Lease Expires in 2025:
- Negotiate aggressively – landlords know market is softening
- Request 5-10% reduction or concessions (free rent, renovations)
- Shop around – don’t renew without comparing market
- Consider downsizing or relocating to OCR for bigger savings
If Your Lease Expires in 2026:
- Prime negotiation window – maximum supply hitting market
- Target 10-15% reduction from current rent
- Long-term leases (3 years) may lock in better rates
If You’re Searching Now:
- Focus on new completions – desperate developers/owners
- OCR and RCR areas offer best value
- Don’t be afraid to lowball – worst case they say no
Long-Term Planning:
- If single: Consider BTO application immediately (4-5 year wait)
- If married: BTO or resale HDB makes more financial sense than renting by 2026
- Build emergency fund for 6-12 months rent (market volatility)
For Landlords:
If You’re Risk-Averse:
- Accept market rates – don’t be greedy
- Retain good tenants with modest increases (3-5%)
- Factor in void period costs (1-2 months per year)
- Budget for declining rental income 2025-2026
If You’re Optimistic:
- Hold firm on rates initially but be ready to adjust
- Focus on property differentiation (renovations, furnishing)
- Target segments less affected (high-end, corporate)
- Consider short-term rentals if regulations allow
Portfolio Management:
- If over-leveraged: Consider selling before deeper correction
- If cash-flow negative: Seriously evaluate exit strategy
- Diversify beyond property if too concentrated
Property Upgrades:
- Fresh paint, modern fixtures can command 5-10% premium
- Smart home features attractive to younger tenants
- Flexible lease terms (furniture optional) broaden tenant pool
For Property Investors:
Buying Decisions:
- Wait for 2025-2026 – better deals ahead
- Focus on locations with long-term fundamentals (near MRT, good schools)
- Avoid over-supplied segments (OCR 1-bedrooms)
- Run conservative numbers: assume 5-6% gross yield, not 2022’s 8%+
Selling Decisions:
- If purchased 2021-2022 at peak: Consider exit if not cash-flow positive
- If holding long-term: Weather the storm, fundamentals intact
- Watch ABSD rules: holding period matters for tax
New Investment Thesis:
- Singapore property remains solid long-term (land scarcity)
- But: Lower yield, higher interest rate environment = lower returns
- Consider REITs for property exposure with better liquidity
Conclusion: A Market in Transition
Singapore’s rental market is transitioning from the extraordinary post-COVID surge to a more normalized, supply-driven environment. The 2022-2023 period will be remembered as an aberration, not the new normal.
Key Takeaways:
- Tenants have regained negotiating power – use it wisely in 2025-2026
- Soft landing most likely – expect 10-12% decline from peak, not crash
- Affordability improves but doesn’t fully recover – rents will stabilize well above 2019-2020 levels
- Location matters more than ever – OCR sees biggest corrections, CCR stays sticky
- Supply is king – watch completion schedules for your target area
- Policy risk is real – government could intervene if social pressures mount
- Long-term trend intact – Singapore’s small size and continued growth support rental demand beyond 2027
The Bottom Line:
For the Sarahs, Rajeshes, and Johnsons of Singapore – there’s cautious optimism ahead. The market that priced out so many in 2022-2023 is correcting, but don’t expect a return to 2020 prices.
For the Mrs. Tans and property investors – adjust expectations, focus on quality tenants over maximum rent, and remember that real estate is a long-term game.
Singapore’s rental market remains one of the world’s most expensive, but the worst appears to be behind us. The question for 2025-2027 isn’t whether rents will fall, but by how much – and whether relief will be enough to make the Lion City affordable again for its young adults seeking independence.
Analysis based on market data as of November 2025. Individual circumstances vary. Consult property agents and financial advisors for personalized guidance.