LionGlobal Singapore Physical Gold Fund - Maxthon

Executive Summary

The launch of the LionGlobal Singapore Physical Gold Fund on November 25, 2025, represents a strategic milestone in Singapore’s evolution as a leading global gold hub. This case study examines the fund’s structure, market positioning, and long-term viability within the context of unprecedented gold price appreciation and Asia’s growing dominance in the precious metals market.

Launch Details:

Lion Global Investors launched Singapore’s first insured physical gold fund on November 25, 2025
This is a milestone offering launched in celebration of Singapore’s 60th anniversary (SG60) The Manila Times
Lion Global Investors manages $60 billion in assets under management Caproasia

Fund Structure:

Tracks the LBMA Gold Price AM benchmark (set at 10:30am London time / 6:30pm Singapore time)
Backed one-to-one by investment-grade gold bars with minimum 99.5% fineness
Physical gold stored at Le Freeport Singapore, a high-security facility with 24/7 surveillance
Fully insured against loss, theft, and damage
Standard Chartered Bank Singapore serves as custodian

Investment Access:

Minimum initial investment: S$1,000 or US$1,000
Subsequent investments: as low as S$100 or US$100
Distribution partners: OCBC, MariBank, iFast, Great Eastern, POEMS, and Singlife
MariBank will offer investment from as low as S$1
Planned SGX listing by Q1 2026
Not currently eligible for CPF Investment Scheme, though the fund hopes for earlier approval

Market Context: Gold prices have surged dramatically, rising from around US$2,000 per ounce three years ago to a record high of US$4,380 per ounce in mid-October 2025, currently hovering around US$4,100 per ounce.

The fund aims to democratize access to physical gold investment while positioning Singapore as a leading gold hub, particularly as the global gold market has been steadily shifting eastward and Singapore is positioned near 25% of the world’s gold mining supply

Key Highlights:

Singapore’s first insured physical gold fund vaulted domestically
Launched amid gold prices at near-record levels (~US$4,100/oz)
Strategic consortium including OCBC, MariBank, Standard Chartered, Great Eastern, POEMS, and Singlife
Planned SGX listing by Q1 2026
Minimum investment: S$1,000 (MariBank offering from S$1)

1. Case Study Analysis

1.1 Product Structure & Innovation

Fund Mechanics: The LionGlobal fund distinguishes itself through complete physical backing and Singapore-centric infrastructure. Each unit is backed one-to-one by investment-grade gold bars meeting LBMA standards (minimum 99.5% fineness), with the majority held in allocated form at Le Freeport Singapore. The fund tracks the LBMA Gold Price AM benchmark, with up to 5% held in unallocated gold credit to facilitate smooth subscriptions and redemptions.

Differentiation Points:

First physically-backed gold fund fully insured and vaulted in Singapore
Direct physical possession alternative without storage burden
Multi-channel distribution democratizing access across wealth segments
Transparent, traceable gold holdings with unique serial numbers
Zero GST on investment gold in Singapore (removed in 2012)

1.2 Strategic Positioning

Market Timing: The fund launches during a transformational period for gold markets:

Gold prices surged 150% from US$2,000 (3 years ago) to record US$4,380 in October 2025
Central bank purchases reached historic levels (900+ tonnes annually since 2022)
Geopolitical tensions driving safe-haven demand
Eastern gold markets gaining prominence over traditional London/New York hubs

Singapore’s Competitive Advantages: Singapore has systematically positioned itself as the “Geneva of the East” for gold:

Political stability and rule of law
Strategic location near 25% of global gold mining supply
Proximity to major Asian consumers (China, India, Japan, South Korea)
World-class infrastructure (Le Freeport, security, insurance)
Favorable regulatory environment (no GST on investment gold)
Established financial center with robust capital markets

1.3 Distribution Strategy

The consortium approach represents a sophisticated multi-channel strategy:

Banking Channels:

OCBC: Leveraging established wealth advisory network
MariBank: Digital-first accessibility with S$1 minimum entry point
Standard Chartered: Institutional credibility as custodian

Insurance Platforms:

Great Eastern & Singlife: Access through wealth platforms (GROW, dollarDEX)
Investment-linked policy integration by Q1 2026
Participating fund allocation potential

Investment Platforms:

iFast: Digital platform reaching tech-savvy investors
POEMS: Brokerage access for active traders

This multi-pronged approach addresses different investor segments: mass affluent (traditional banks), younger digital natives (MariBank), insurance customers seeking portfolio diversification, and active traders.

1.4 Addressing Market Gaps

Existing Market Landscape: Prior to this launch, Singapore investors accessed gold through:

Physical purchases (bars, coins) with storage challenges
SPDR Gold Shares ETF on SGX (only existing listed gold ETF)
Gold savings accounts with banks
Foreign-listed gold ETFs via international brokers
Gold certificates

Value Proposition: The LionGlobal fund bridges gaps between physical ownership and ETF convenience:

Physical backing eliminates counterparty concerns of paper gold
Professional storage removes security burdens
Lower entry point than purchasing physical bars
SGX listing provides secondary market liquidity
Insurance coverage addresses physical gold risks
Singapore-based storage appeals to those wary of foreign jurisdiction risks

2. Market Outlook

2.1 Gold Price Forecasts (2025-2026)

Major investment banks present bullish consensus:

Goldman Sachs:

End-2026 target: US$4,900/oz
Upside scenario: US$5,000+
Key driver: Central bank purchases averaging 80 tonnes/month

Morgan Stanley:

2026 forecast: US$4,400/oz (revised up from US$3,313)
Represents ~10% gain from current levels
Catalysts: Fed rate cuts, ETF inflows, central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty

J.P. Morgan:

Q4 2025: US$3,675/oz average
Mid-2026: US$4,000/oz
Risks skewed to upside if demand exceeds expectations

UBS:

Mid-2026: US$4,500/oz (raised from US$4,200)
Upside case: US$4,900/oz
Expects 750 tonnes ETF buying and 900 tonnes central bank purchases in 2026

Consensus View: The market expects gold to trade in the US$4,000-4,900 range through 2026, with potential for further upside. Long-term forecasts suggest US$5,000-6,000 by 2027-2028.

2.2 Demand Drivers

Structural Factors:

Central Bank Demand: Central banks have fundamentally altered their gold acquisition patterns post-2022. Following Russia’s frozen foreign currency reserves, emerging market central banks accelerated gold purchases five-fold. China, Qatar, Poland, Singapore, and India have been particularly active. This represents a structural shift in reserve diversification away from dollar dependence, driven by geopolitical considerations rather than price sensitivity.

Geopolitical Risk Premium: Ongoing conflicts, trade tensions, and shifting global alliances have elevated gold’s role as a neutral, sanction-proof reserve asset. As U.S. weaponization of the financial system creates concerns, nations seek alternatives less vulnerable to political interference.

Monetary Policy Environment: Fed rate cuts reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Lower real yields historically correlate with gold price appreciation. The cycle that began in September 2025 typically sees gold rise 6% on average in the 60 days following the first rate cut.

Inflation Hedge Demand: Persistent inflation concerns, particularly in emerging markets, drive investment demand. Gold’s track record of maintaining purchasing power over decades remains compelling for wealth preservation.

Asian Consumer Demand: China, India, and Southeast Asian markets drive 70%+ of physical gold demand. Rising middle-class wealth in Asia creates sustained jewelry and investment demand. Cultural affinity for gold in Asian markets provides a stable demand floor.

Cyclical Factors:

ETF Inflows: After several years of muted Western investor participation, gold ETF inflows have resurged. October 2025 saw 112 tonnes of inflows—the largest monthly increase since mid-2022. UBS forecasts 750 tonnes of ETF buying in 2026.

Speculative Positioning: COMEX net long positions remain in the 73rd percentile since 2014, indicating strong bullish sentiment. However, this also introduces risk of tactical pullbacks if positions mean-revert.

2.3 Supply Constraints

Gold supply faces structural headwinds:

Mine supply growth averaging only 0.3% annually since 2018
No new major mines opened in the U.S. since 2002
Permitting challenges, environmental concerns, and resource nationalism constraining new projects
Rising production costs limiting marginal supply response to higher prices
Recycling supply relatively inelastic

These supply dynamics support higher price floors as demand growth outpaces supply expansion.

2.4 Risks to Outlook

Downside Scenarios:

Stronger-than-expected U.S. dollar could pressure gold prices
Aggressive Fed tightening reversing rate cut expectations
Resolution of major geopolitical tensions reducing safe-haven demand
Demand destruction from high prices (particularly in price-sensitive jewelry markets)
Speculative position unwinding causing tactical corrections
Cryptocurrency competition for alternative asset flows

Probability Assessment: Most analysts consider risks skewed to the upside given:

Entrenched structural demand from central banks
Geopolitical tensions showing no signs of resolution
Fiscal sustainability concerns in major economies
Ongoing monetary policy uncertainty

3. Viability Assessment

3.1 Market Opportunity

Addressable Market:

Singapore Retail Investors: Singapore has a high savings rate and sophisticated investor base. With S$400+ billion in CPF savings alone (though the fund isn’t yet CPFIS-approved), the potential addressable market is substantial. The growth of gold savings accounts and increasing retail gold purchases (35% surge in Q1 2025) indicates latent demand.

Regional Wealth: Singapore serves as the wealth management hub for Southeast Asia. High-net-worth individuals across ASEAN increasingly seek Singapore-based gold storage for wealth preservation and diversification. The fund offers institutional-grade access with retail convenience.

Institutional Allocation: Insurance companies, family offices, and institutional investors seeking gold exposure can utilize the fund. Singlife’s commitment to allocate participating fund assets indicates institutional appetite.

Market Size Estimates:

Singapore’s gold ETF market currently dominated by single SGX-listed fund (SPDR Gold Shares)
Global gold ETF AUM: US$222 billion (September 2025)
Asia represents underpenetrated opportunity; gold ETFs are tiny fraction of mutual fund universe in markets like China and India
Singapore trades over 300 tonnes of gold annually

3.2 Competitive Analysis

Direct Competitors:

SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD):

Advantages: Established track record (since 2004), largest AUM globally (US$125+ billion), high liquidity, CPFIS-eligible
Disadvantages: Gold stored in London (not Singapore), higher expense ratio compared to newer entrants

Physical Gold Purchases:

Advantages: Direct ownership, generational wealth transfer, cultural preference
Disadvantages: Storage costs, security risks, authentication concerns, higher premiums over spot

Gold Savings Accounts:

Advantages: Low minimum investment, simple digital access
Disadvantages: Counterparty risk, no secondary market liquidity, ongoing service fees

International Gold ETFs:

Advantages: Variety of options, established products
Disadvantages: Currency exposure, foreign jurisdiction storage, less accessibility for Singapore retail investors

Competitive Positioning:

The LionGlobal fund occupies a unique position:

vs. Physical Gold: Eliminates storage/security burden while maintaining Singapore-based physical backing
vs. Existing ETFs: Differentiation through domestic storage and insurance; potential cost advantage once expenses are disclosed
vs. Savings Accounts: Superior liquidity through SGX listing; portfolio integration capability
vs. Foreign ETFs: Removes foreign jurisdiction concerns; simpler tax treatment; familiar regulatory framework

3.3 Revenue Model & Economics

Fee Structure: Specific management fees have not been publicly disclosed yet. Typical gold ETF expense ratios range from 0.09% (iShares Gold Trust Micro) to 0.40% (SPDR Gold Shares). Given Lion Global’s positioning as accessible yet premium, expect fees in the 0.15-0.30% range.

Revenue Sources:

Annual management fees on AUM
Potential performance fees (unlikely for passive product)
Securities lending revenue (though physical gold ETFs typically don’t lend)
Subscription/redemption fees (likely waived to encourage adoption)

Cost Structure:

Custodial fees (Standard Chartered)
Storage and insurance at Le Freeport
Administrative and compliance costs
Distribution commissions/revenue sharing with partners
Marketing and investor education
SGX listing and regulatory compliance

Profitability Threshold: Gold ETFs benefit from economies of scale. The fund likely needs S$100-200 million AUM to reach profitability, achievable within 12-18 months given the multi-channel distribution strategy and institutional backing.

3.4 Regulatory & Operational Considerations

Strengths:

Robust regulatory framework under MAS oversight
Proven custody infrastructure with Standard Chartered
Le Freeport offers institutional-grade security and insurance
LBMA-compliant gold ensures global standard recognition
Zero GST on investment gold reduces friction

Challenges:

CPFIS Approval: Not currently CPFIS-eligible, limiting access to significant capital pool. Typical approval timeline is 3 years for active funds; the fund hopes for expedited approval given passive nature. CPFIS eligibility would be a major catalyst.

Liquidity Management: Balancing allocated physical gold (secure but less liquid) with unallocated gold (liquid but introduces counterparty risk) requires careful management. The 95%/5% split addresses this but creates slight tracking error risk.

Redemption Risk: In stressed market conditions, simultaneous large redemptions could strain the allocated gold buffer. This requires robust operational procedures and potentially maintaining higher unallocated balances during volatile periods.

Secondary Market Development: Post-SGX listing, ensuring adequate market-making and liquidity will be critical for investor confidence. Partnering with designated market makers will be essential.

3.5 Success Factors

Critical Success Requirements:

Asset Gathering Momentum:

Target: S$500 million AUM within first year
S$1-2 billion within 3 years to establish market presence
Critical mass necessary for SGX liquidity and media attention

Distribution Execution:

MariBank’s S$1 minimum entry crucial for mass market adoption
Insurance platform integration broadens addressable market
Consistent messaging across channels
Strong digital marketing to younger investors

CPFIS Approval:

Game-changer for AUM growth potential
Would differentiate from most global gold ETFs
Priority for management to pursue expedited review

Cost Competitiveness:

Fee structure must be competitive with existing alternatives
Transparency on total cost of ownership including storage and insurance

Liquidity Development:

Post-listing, tight bid-ask spreads critical
Sufficient trading volumes to support institutional participation
Effective market-making arrangements

Investor Education:

Many retail investors lack understanding of gold’s portfolio role
Educational campaigns on inflation hedging and diversification
Addressing misconceptions about physical vs. paper gold

Track Record Building:

Consistent tracking of LBMA Gold Price AM benchmark
Reliable subscriptions/redemptions processing
Building reputation for operational excellence

3.6 Risk Assessment

High Risk Factors:

Gold Price Correction: If gold enters bear market from current elevated levels, demand for new products typically wanes. However, structural buyers (central banks) may continue accumulating.

Market Saturation: Singapore market may not support multiple large gold funds. SPDR Gold Shares has first-mover advantage and CPFIS eligibility.

Operational Issues: Early-stage operational problems (tracking errors, redemption delays, custody issues) could permanently damage reputation.

Medium Risk Factors:

Fee Compression: Global trend toward lower-cost passive products creates pricing pressure. Late entrants may struggle to justify premium fees.

Regulatory Changes: Potential changes to gold taxation, CPFIS rules, or custody requirements could impact competitiveness.

Distribution Conflicts: Multiple distribution partners may create channel conflicts or inconsistent client experiences.

Low Risk Factors:

Counterparty Risk: 95% allocated physical gold minimizes this concern. Standard Chartered and Le Freeport provide institutional-grade security.

Singapore Market Risk: Singapore’s stability and commitment to financial sector excellence reduce jurisdiction-specific risks.

3.7 Viability Verdict

Overall Assessment: VIABLE with MODERATE-HIGH probability of success

Supporting Factors:

Market Timing: Launch during structurally bullish gold environment with strong price momentum
Singapore Positioning: Aligns with national strategy to become leading Asian gold hub
Consortium Strength: Strong institutional backing provides credibility and distribution reach
Product Design: Addresses legitimate market gap between pure physical and existing ETFs
Favorable Fundamentals: Gold outlook remains constructive through 2026-2027

Viability Scenarios:

Best Case (30% probability):

Achieves S$2-3 billion AUM within 3 years
Secures CPFIS approval within 18 months
Becomes preferred vehicle for Singapore-based gold investment
Successful SGX listing with strong secondary market liquidity
Expands to institutional mandates and insurance allocations
Outcome: Establishes dominant position in Singapore gold investment market; profitable and sustainable

Base Case (50% probability):

Reaches S$500 million – S$1 billion AUM within 3 years
Eventually obtains CPFIS approval (2-3 years)
Coexists alongside SPDR Gold Shares with differentiated positioning
Adequate SGX liquidity but not market-leading volumes
Profitable at scale but growth moderates
Outcome: Successful niche product serving specific investor segments; sustainable but not transformative

Downside Case (20% probability):

Struggles to reach S$200-300 million AUM
Delayed or denied CPFIS approval
Gold price correction reduces investor appetite
Distribution channels underperform expectations
Operating costs exceed revenues at current scale
Outcome: Marginal viability; potential consolidation or strategy pivot required

4. Strategic Recommendations

4.1 For Lion Global Investors

Short-term (0-12 months):

Aggressive asset-gathering campaign across all distribution channels
Competitive fee structure announcement to challenge incumbents
Robust investor education program on gold’s portfolio role
Expedite CPFIS approval application with comprehensive documentation
Ensure seamless operational execution to build track record
Prepare for SGX listing with market-maker agreements in place

Medium-term (1-3 years):

Expand distribution to additional platforms and advisors
Develop institutional share class with lower fees for large investors
Explore strategic partnerships with Asian wealth managers
Consider silver or other precious metals variants if gold fund succeeds
Build thought leadership around gold investment and Singapore gold hub narrative
Evaluate corporate gold savings programs for employee benefit plans

Long-term (3+ years):

Establish LionGlobal as preferred gold investment platform in Singapore
Expand regionally to other Asian markets where appropriate
Develop complementary products (covered call strategies, hedged share classes)
Explore blockchain/tokenization for fractional ownership innovation
Position for potential inclusion in major index providers

4.2 For Investors

Who Should Consider This Fund:

Appropriate Investors:

Those seeking inflation hedge and portfolio diversification
Investors wanting physical gold exposure without storage burden
Singapore-based investors valuing domestic jurisdiction
Long-term wealth preservation focused investors
Those allocating 5-10% of liquid net worth to gold (typical advisor recommendation)

Less Suitable For:

Short-term traders (gold is volatile; this is buy-and-hold asset)
Those seeking income (gold produces no yield)
Investors uncomfortable with commodities volatility
Those who strongly prefer direct physical possession

Allocation Guidance: Financial advisors typically recommend 5-10% gold allocation for conservative investors, potentially higher during periods of elevated uncertainty. The LionGlobal fund can serve this role effectively within a diversified portfolio.

5. Conclusion

The LionGlobal Singapore Physical Gold Fund enters the market at an opportune time, aligning with both cyclical gold price strength and Singapore’s strategic positioning as an Asian gold hub. The fund’s structure addresses legitimate market gaps, and the consortium approach provides strong institutional backing and diversified distribution.

Key Takeaways:

Product Merit: Well-designed fund solving real investor problems around storage, security, and access to physical gold
Market Opportunity: Singapore’s growing role in Asian gold markets creates favorable environment; retail gold investment demand is rising
Competitive Position: Differentiated through Singapore-based storage and comprehensive insurance; coexists with rather than directly displaces existing options
Financial Viability: Achievable path to profitability given multi-channel distribution and institutional backing; economies of scale favor success
Outlook Dependency: Success partially tied to continued gold price strength; structural factors support favorable outlook through 2026
Execution Critical: Ultimate success depends on effective distribution, competitive fees, CPFIS approval, and operational excellence

The fund represents more than just another investment product—it’s part of Singapore’s broader ambition to rival London and New York as a global gold center. In this context, the LionGlobal fund has strategic significance beyond its standalone commercial viability.

Final Assessment: The fund has solid prospects for success, with viability confidence level at approximately 70% based on favorable market conditions, strong institutional backing, and genuine market need. The primary risk factors—gold price correction, distribution execution challenges, and competition from incumbents—are manageable but require vigilant monitoring.

For investors, the fund offers a legitimate option for gaining gold exposure with Singapore-specific advantages. For the broader market, it signals the maturation of Singapore’s gold infrastructure and positions the city-state for continued growth in the global precious metals ecosystem.

Analysis prepared: November 26, 2025
Gold spot price (current): ~US$4,100/oz
Data sources: Lion Global Investors, Bloomberg, World Gold Council, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, UBS, various financial news sources

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Gold investments carry risks including price volatility, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult financial advisors before making investment decisions.