Thailand-Cambodia Border Conflict

by | Dec 13, 2025 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

Executive Summary

The Thailand-Cambodia border conflict, which intensified in December 2025, represents a critical test for ASEAN unity and regional stability. This analysis examines the conflict’s dynamics, potential trajectories, and implications for Singapore as a key ASEAN member state.

Current Status: Fighting has continued into a sixth day, with Thailand vowing to continue military operations despite US President Trump’s claims of brokering a ceasefire. Cambodia has accused Thailand of escalating attacks, including bombing civilian areas.

The Dispute: The conflict stems from accusations that Cambodia planted fresh landmines in disputed border areas, which severely injured Thai soldiers in November. Both sides blame each other for firing first on December 7, leading to Thailand launching air strikes on December 8.

Diplomatic Efforts: Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim has proposed deploying an ASEAN Observer Team with US satellite monitoring support to help de-escalate tensions and determine the facts. However, Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin has rejected the ceasefire and stated Thailand will continue military action.

Trump’s Involvement: President Trump claimed he brokered a ceasefire, but Thailand’s Foreign Minister said Trump’s understanding of the situation was inaccurate, particularly regarding the landmine incidents which Trump characterized as “roadside accidents.”

Political Context: Thai PM Anutin faces domestic political pressure with snap elections scheduled for early February 2025, which may limit his ability to compromise on what appears to be a popular hardline stance among Thai voters.

Humanitarian Impact: Civilians on both sides have been displaced, with temporary camps set up for refugees fleeing the conflict zones.

Case Study: The Conflict Dynamics

Background and Escalation Timeline

The current crisis represents the latest chapter in a long-standing territorial dispute between Thailand and Cambodia over border demarcation, particularly in areas near the Preah Vihear temple and other contested zones.

July 2025: Initial five-day armed conflict broke out, resulting in casualties and displacement. A ceasefire was negotiated.

October 2025: Thailand and Cambodia signed the Kuala Lumpur Joint Declaration, brokered by Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim, committing to peace and border cooperation.

November 2025: Thai PM Anutin Charnvirakul suspended the peace agreement, accusing Cambodia of planting fresh landmines in disputed jungle areas. Multiple Thai soldiers were severely wounded, with some losing limbs.

December 7, 2025: Both sides exchanged gunfire, with each blaming the other for initiating hostilities.

December 8-13, 2025: Thailand launched sustained air strikes against Cambodian targets, including civilian infrastructure. Fighting continued for six consecutive days despite diplomatic interventions.

Key Actors and Motivations

Thailand (PM Anutin Charnvirakul)

  • Facing snap elections by early February 2025, approximately one month ahead of schedule
  • Domestic political pressure to maintain hardline stance on national sovereignty
  • Public support for firm action on border security issues
  • Military mandate to protect Thai soldiers and territory from perceived threats

Cambodia (PM Hun Manet)

  • Seeks to protect territorial integrity and civilian populations
  • Requests international verification through satellite monitoring
  • Positions Cambodia as the victim of Thai aggression
  • Appeals to international community for intervention and support

United States (President Donald Trump)

  • Attempted to broker ceasefire but demonstrated limited understanding of situation details
  • Mischaracterized landmine incidents as “roadside accidents”
  • Leverage potential through ongoing trade negotiations with both nations
  • Unclear whether rebuff will prompt retaliatory measures or renewed engagement

Malaysia (PM Anwar Ibrahim)

  • Regional mediator role through ASEAN chairmanship
  • Proposed ASEAN Observer Team deployment
  • Coordinated with US on satellite monitoring capabilities
  • Seeks to prevent regional destabilization

Root Causes Analysis

Immediate Triggers

  • Landmine incidents causing severe casualties to Thai soldiers
  • Disputed narratives about who initiated December 7 gunfire exchange
  • Breakdown of October peace agreement implementation

Structural Issues

  • Unresolved historical border demarcation disputes
  • Nationalist sentiments in both countries
  • Resource competition in contested border areas
  • Military presence and infrastructure in disputed zones

Political Catalysts

  • Thailand’s imminent snap elections creating domestic political incentives
  • New leadership dynamics with relatively inexperienced premiers in both nations
  • Competing visions of national sovereignty and territorial rights

Outlook: Potential Scenarios

Scenario 1: Contained Escalation (Probability: 40%)

Description: Fighting continues at current or slightly elevated intensity for 2-4 weeks before diplomatic pressure and ASEAN mediation achieve a fragile ceasefire.

Key Indicators

  • ASEAN Observer Team deployment proceeds as planned
  • US satellite monitoring provides credible evidence of first shooter
  • International pressure on both sides intensifies
  • Domestic costs of conflict begin outweighing political benefits for PM Anutin

Implications

  • Limited regional economic disruption
  • Humanitarian crisis manageable through ASEAN coordination
  • Border tensions remain unresolved, risk of future flare-ups
  • ASEAN credibility partially maintained but weakened

Scenario 2: Prolonged Conflict (Probability: 35%)

Description: Military operations extend beyond February elections, with periodic ceasefires followed by renewed hostilities. Conflict becomes entrenched “frozen conflict” lasting 3-12 months.

Key Indicators

  • PM Anutin wins election on nationalist platform, feels emboldened to continue
  • Cambodia refuses to compromise without territorial concessions
  • ASEAN mediation efforts fail to produce lasting agreement
  • Regional powers unable or unwilling to impose costs on belligerents

Implications

  • Significant humanitarian crisis with tens of thousands displaced
  • Regional supply chain disruptions affecting trade corridors
  • ASEAN’s credibility severely damaged
  • Potential for drawing in external powers (China, US) in proxy capacity
  • Economic costs mount for both countries and region

Scenario 3: Rapid De-escalation (Probability: 15%)

Description: One or both parties make significant concessions within 1-2 weeks, leading to sustainable ceasefire and renewed peace negotiations.

Key Indicators

  • Decisive satellite evidence clearly establishes facts about December 7 incident
  • Major economic or diplomatic pressure from China, US, or other powers
  • Unexpected domestic political shift in Thailand
  • Catastrophic incident (mass civilian casualties) creates urgency for peace

Implications

  • Quick restoration of regional stability
  • ASEAN’s mediation role vindicated
  • Foundation for long-term border settlement process
  • Reduced humanitarian and economic costs

Scenario 4: Major Escalation (Probability: 10%)

Description: Conflict spirals into full-scale conventional war involving ground invasions, major urban bombardment, and potential regional spillover.

Key Indicators

  • Thailand launches ground offensive into Cambodian territory
  • Cambodia strikes Thai cities or critical infrastructure
  • Mass civilian casualties trigger revenge cycle
  • Diplomatic channels completely break down
  • External powers begin military positioning

Implications

  • Catastrophic humanitarian crisis with hundreds of thousands displaced
  • Severe regional economic disruption
  • ASEAN collapse as effective organization
  • Potential intervention by external powers
  • Long-term regional destabilization

Solutions Framework

Short-Term Solutions (0-3 months)

1. Immediate Ceasefire Implementation

Mechanism: Establish time-bound, verifiable ceasefire with clear monitoring protocols

  • Deploy ASEAN Observer Team within 48 hours of agreement
  • Create 5km demilitarized buffer zone on both sides of disputed areas
  • Implement satellite monitoring with US/Malaysia oversight
  • Establish direct military-to-military communication hotline

Success Factors

  • Clear definition of what constitutes ceasefire violation
  • Rapid response protocol for addressing incidents
  • Political cover for both leaders to accept without losing face

2. Humanitarian Corridor Establishment

Mechanism: Create safe zones for civilians and facilitate humanitarian access

  • ASEAN-coordinated humanitarian assistance teams
  • Designated safe crossing points for displaced populations
  • International humanitarian organizations granted access
  • Emergency medical support for wounded soldiers and civilians

3. Fact-Finding Mission

Mechanism: Independent investigation to establish December 7 timeline

  • Joint US-Malaysia satellite imagery analysis
  • ASEAN-led ground investigation team
  • Forensic analysis of landmine incidents
  • Public release of findings with clear attribution

Expected Outcome: Credible basis for negotiations by establishing factual record

Medium-Term Solutions (3-12 months)

1. Comprehensive Border Demarcation Process

Mechanism: UN or ASEAN-facilitated mapping and demarcation of disputed areas

  • Joint survey teams with international observers
  • Use of modern GPS and satellite mapping technology
  • Historical documentation review by neutral experts
  • Phased approach addressing less contentious areas first

Timeline

  • Months 1-3: Establish terms of reference and expert team
  • Months 4-9: Field surveys and historical research
  • Months 10-12: Draft preliminary border agreement

2. Economic Confidence-Building Measures

Mechanism: Joint economic projects to create mutual incentives for peace

  • Special Economic Zone development in border areas
  • Cross-border infrastructure projects (roads, bridges)
  • Joint tourism development of shared cultural sites
  • Trade facilitation agreements reducing border friction

Expected Benefits

  • Creates stakeholder groups invested in peace
  • Generates economic benefits offsetting conflict costs
  • Builds trust through practical cooperation
  • Provides alternative narrative to nationalist conflict rhetoric

3. Security Sector Reform and Cooperation

Mechanism: Military-to-military confidence building and de-escalation protocols

  • Joint military exercises focused on peacekeeping and disaster response
  • Officer exchange programs
  • Shared early warning systems for border incidents
  • Agreed protocols for handling accidental border crossings

4. Political Dialogue Framework

Mechanism: Regular high-level diplomatic engagement with ASEAN support

  • Quarterly prime ministerial meetings
  • Monthly foreign minister consultations
  • Permanent joint border commission
  • Track II dialogue involving civil society, academics, business leaders

Long-Term Solutions (1-5 years)

Solution 1: ASEAN Border Management Framework

Objective: Establish region-wide mechanisms for preventing and managing border disputes

Components

Legal Infrastructure

  • ASEAN Border Dispute Prevention Protocol
  • Mandatory arbitration clause for territorial disputes
  • Regional border demarcation standards
  • Harmonized mapping methodologies

Institutional Mechanisms

  • ASEAN Border Management Agency with permanent staff
  • Regional early warning system for border tensions
  • Rapid deployment peacekeeping force drawn from member states
  • Regional training center for border management professionals

Monitoring and Verification

  • Satellite monitoring consortium with multiple member states
  • Regular aerial surveys of disputed border regions
  • Joint patrols in agreed buffer zones
  • Technology-enabled border monitoring (sensors, drones)

Implementation Roadmap

  • Year 1: Draft protocols and establish legal framework
  • Year 2: Create institutional structures and staffing
  • Year 3: Pilot programs in Thailand-Cambodia border
  • Year 4: Expansion to other ASEAN border regions
  • Year 5: Full operational capability across region

Success Metrics

  • Reduction in border incidents by 80%
  • Resolution time for disputes reduced from years to months
  • Member state satisfaction ratings above 70%
  • Zero escalation to armed conflict

Solution 2: Shared Sovereignty Model for Disputed Territories

Objective: Create innovative governance arrangements for areas where borders cannot be clearly demarcated

Model Components

Joint Administration Zones

  • Specific disputed areas designated as Joint Administration Zones (JAZ)
  • Both countries exercise sovereignty jointly
  • Shared revenue from economic activities
  • Dual flag protocol and symbolic co-sovereignty

Governance Structure

  • Joint Administrative Council with equal Thai-Cambodian representation
  • ASEAN chair serves as neutral mediator/tiebreaker
  • Local communities participate in governance decisions
  • Five-year renewable terms allowing for adjustment

Economic Framework

  • Special tax regime favoring investment
  • Joint development of natural resources
  • Tourism revenue sharing 50/50
  • Infrastructure development jointly planned and funded

Security Arrangements

  • Demilitarized zones with only civil administration
  • Joint police force trained by neutral third party
  • ASEAN peacekeepers in transitional period
  • Strict prohibition on military activities

Precedent Examples

  • Andorra (France-Spain joint sovereignty)
  • Brčko District (Bosnia and Herzegovina shared governance)
  • Antarctic Treaty System (shared international cooperation)

Phase-In Approach

  • Phase 1 (Year 1): Establish legal framework and pilot zone
  • Phase 2 (Year 2-3): Build institutional capacity and infrastructure
  • Phase 3 (Year 4-5): Evaluate and expand to additional disputed areas

Solution 3: Regional Economic Integration as Conflict Prevention

Objective: Create economic interdependence so deep that armed conflict becomes economically irrational

Strategic Initiatives

ASEAN Economic Corridor Development

  • Thailand-Cambodia-Vietnam economic corridor
  • Integrated supply chains crossing borders
  • Joint Special Economic Zones at border crossings
  • Harmonized regulations reducing business friction

Cross-Border Investment Framework

  • Thai investment in Cambodian development projects
  • Cambodian investment in Thai industries
  • Joint ventures requiring cooperation for success
  • Regional development bank providing financing

Infrastructure Integration

  • High-speed rail connecting Bangkok and Phnom Penh
  • Shared power grid and energy cooperation
  • Digital infrastructure and telecommunications networks
  • Water resource management systems

Financial Mechanism

  • $5 billion ASEAN Border Development Fund
  • Contributions from member states and development partners
  • Preferential lending for projects promoting integration
  • Performance-based grants for meeting cooperation targets

Expected Economic Impact

  • Bilateral trade increase from current levels to $20 billion by Year 5
  • 500,000 jobs created in border regions
  • GDP growth boost of 0.5-1.0% annually for both countries
  • Reduction in poverty in border areas by 30%

Solution 4: People-to-People Reconciliation Program

Objective: Transform nationalist antagonism into regional friendship through sustained cultural exchange and education

Program Elements

Educational Reform

  • Curriculum changes emphasizing ASEAN cooperation and shared history
  • Student exchange programs between Thai and Cambodian schools
  • Joint university research projects on regional issues
  • Scholarships for cross-border education

Cultural Exchange

  • Annual Thailand-Cambodia Friendship Festival
  • Joint cultural heritage preservation projects
  • Sports competitions and youth camps
  • Sister city partnerships between border communities

Media and Communications

  • Joint broadcasting initiatives highlighting cooperation
  • Social media campaigns promoting positive narratives
  • Journalist exchange programs
  • Fact-checking initiatives to counter nationalist misinformation

Civil Society Engagement

  • Cross-border business associations
  • Joint professional organizations
  • Religious and community leader exchanges
  • Veterans’ reconciliation programs

Generational Strategy

  • Target youth (under 30) as primary audience for attitude shift
  • 10-year timeframe to achieve measurable change in public opinion
  • Regular polling to track attitude changes
  • Adjust programs based on effectiveness data

Success Indicators

  • Favorable opinion of neighbor country increases from current ~30% to 60%
  • Cross-border marriages and relationships increase
  • Tourist visits between countries double
  • Reduction in nationalist rhetoric in media and politics

Solution 5: International Guarantor System

Objective: Involve external powers in ways that support rather than undermine regional stability

Guarantor Framework

Core Guarantors

  • United States: Security guarantees and satellite monitoring
  • China: Economic development financing and diplomatic support
  • Japan: Technical assistance and infrastructure funding
  • European Union: Rule of law support and humanitarian assistance

Responsibilities

  • Verify compliance with border agreements
  • Provide economic incentives for cooperation
  • Impose costs for violations (sanctions, aid suspension)
  • Offer mediation services during tensions

Coordination Mechanism

  • Quarterly Guarantor Group meetings
  • Annual review of border situation
  • Emergency consultation protocols
  • Integrated with ASEAN processes, not replacing them

Risk Mitigation

  • Ensure guarantors don’t pursue conflicting agendas
  • Maintain ASEAN centrality while leveraging external resources
  • Prevent great power competition from inflaming conflict
  • Balance between external involvement and regional autonomy

Singapore Impact Assessment

Direct Impacts

Economic Disruptions

Trade Flows

  • Thailand and Cambodia represent approximately 8% of Singapore’s ASEAN trade
  • Disruption to land corridors affects Singapore’s access to Indochina markets
  • Singapore companies with operations in conflict zones face direct losses
  • Regional supply chain interruptions affecting manufacturing and logistics sectors

Estimated Economic Cost

  • Short-term: $500 million – $1 billion in disrupted trade (if conflict remains contained)
  • Medium-term: $3-5 billion if conflict extends beyond 6 months
  • Sectors affected: electronics manufacturing, petrochemicals, logistics, tourism

Financial Markets

  • Regional risk premium increases, affecting ASEAN equity valuations
  • Thai baht and Cambodian riel volatility impacts currency trading
  • Foreign investment into ASEAN may be redirected away from conflict zones
  • Singapore’s role as financial hub affected by regional instability perceptions

Regional Security

Strategic Environment

  • Demonstrates fragility of ASEAN peace architecture
  • Creates opportunities for external power involvement
  • Tests Singapore’s diplomatic capabilities and regional leadership
  • Potential for precedent-setting regarding territorial disputes

Defense Implications

  • Reminder of importance of strong deterrent capability
  • Validation of Singapore’s defense investments and readiness
  • Potential for increased regional arms race mentality
  • Need to reassess regional threat scenarios

Humanitarian Concerns

Refugee Flows

  • While Singapore unlikely to receive direct refugee flows, regional burden-sharing expectations may arise
  • Humanitarian assistance contributions expected from Singapore
  • Potential deployment of Singapore Armed Forces in humanitarian roles

Strategic Implications for Singapore

ASEAN Leadership Challenge

Singapore faces critical test of its leadership within ASEAN:

Diplomatic Opportunities

  • Enhance Singapore’s role as honest broker and mediator
  • Demonstrate value of Singaporean multilateral diplomacy
  • Build credibility for future conflict resolution efforts
  • Strengthen bilateral relationships through effective crisis management

Risks

  • ASEAN’s credibility damaged if conflict cannot be managed
  • Singapore’s reputation as regional leader undermined by organizational weakness
  • Precedent of member states ignoring ASEAN mechanisms
  • Reduced effectiveness of ASEAN centrality principle

Policy Options for Singapore

Option 1: Active Mediation

  • Join Malaysia in facilitating dialogue
  • Offer Singapore as neutral venue for negotiations
  • Deploy Singapore expertise in border management and conflict resolution
  • Provide technical assistance for monitoring and verification

Advantages

  • Demonstrates Singapore’s commitment to regional stability
  • Builds diplomatic capital with all parties
  • Enhances Singapore’s reputation as honest broker
  • Opportunity to shape regional conflict resolution mechanisms

Risks

  • Failure could damage Singapore’s credibility
  • Taking sides could alienate one party
  • Resource commitment during uncertain outcome
  • Distraction from other priorities

Option 2: Supportive Role

  • Support Malaysian-led mediation efforts
  • Provide logistics and technical support
  • Contribute to ASEAN Observer Team
  • Offer humanitarian assistance

Advantages

  • Lower risk profile than direct mediation
  • Still demonstrates commitment to ASEAN
  • Allows flexibility in approach
  • Preserves resources for other priorities

Risks

  • Limited influence on outcomes
  • May be seen as insufficient leadership
  • Missed opportunity for enhanced regional role

Option 3: Economic Leverage

  • Use Singapore’s economic relationships to incentivize peace
  • Coordinate with international financial institutions
  • Offer economic rewards for cooperation
  • Signal potential costs of continued conflict

Advantages

  • Plays to Singapore’s strengths in economics and finance
  • Less politically sensitive than direct mediation
  • Creates positive incentives rather than pressure
  • Can be sustained over longer timeframe

Risks

  • Economic incentives may be insufficient
  • Perception of using economic power coercively
  • Limited short-term impact
  • Requires coordination with other economic powers

Recommended Singapore Response Strategy

Phase 1: Immediate Response (Weeks 1-2)

  1. Public Diplomacy
    • Foreign Minister statement expressing concern and supporting ASEAN efforts
    • Reaffirm commitment to peaceful resolution and ASEAN unity
    • Avoid taking sides while emphasizing international law and norms
  2. Humanitarian Assistance
    • Announce $5-10 million humanitarian aid package for displaced civilians
    • Offer Singapore Armed Forces medical teams if requested
    • Coordinate with ASEAN Humanitarian Assistance Centre
  3. Economic Assessment
    • Comprehensive impact analysis on Singapore businesses
    • Dialogue with affected companies on contingency plans
    • Monitor trade flows and supply chain disruptions

Phase 2: Sustained Engagement (Months 1-3)

  1. Diplomatic Support
    • Senior official visits to Bangkok, Phnom Penh, Kuala Lumpur
    • Offer Singapore as venue for peace talks
    • Work with Malaysia on ASEAN Observer Team deployment
    • Engage with US, China, and other powers on coordinated approach
  2. Technical Assistance
    • Offer Singapore expertise in border management
    • Provide satellite imagery analysis capabilities if needed
    • Share Singapore’s experience in dispute resolution
  3. ASEAN Strengthening
    • Use crisis to advocate for stronger ASEAN conflict resolution mechanisms
    • Propose institutional reforms to prevent future escalations
    • Lead discussion on ASEAN Border Management Framework

Phase 3: Long-term Positioning (Months 3-12)

  1. Regional Architecture
    • Champion development of ASEAN conflict prevention infrastructure
    • Work with partners on guarantor framework
    • Invest in regional early warning systems
  2. Economic Integration
    • Promote deeper ASEAN economic integration as conflict prevention
    • Facilitate cross-border investment and cooperation
    • Support development of border economic zones
  3. Capacity Building
    • Offer training for ASEAN diplomats on conflict resolution
    • Establish Singapore-based center for border dispute expertise
    • Create scholarships for Thai and Cambodian officials

Key Success Factors for Singapore

  1. Maintain ASEAN Centrality: Ensure any Singapore involvement strengthens rather than bypasses ASEAN mechanisms
  2. Balance Great Power Interests: Work constructively with US, China, and others without becoming proxy for their competition
  3. Preserve Neutrality: Avoid being seen as taking sides while still being actively engaged
  4. Demonstrate Value: Show concrete results from Singapore’s involvement to justify leadership role
  5. Build Coalitions: Work with like-minded ASEAN members (Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam) on coordinated approach
  6. Long-term Perspective: Use immediate crisis to advance longer-term regional stability architecture

Conclusion

The Thailand-Cambodia border conflict represents a critical juncture for ASEAN and regional stability. While the immediate outlook remains uncertain, with scenarios ranging from rapid de-escalation to prolonged conflict, the crisis also presents opportunities for meaningful regional reform.

For Singapore, the conflict is both challenge and opportunity. As a small state heavily dependent on regional stability, Singapore has vital interests in effective conflict resolution. However, Singapore also has unique capabilities and credibility to contribute to solutions through diplomatic engagement, technical assistance, and thought leadership on regional architecture.

The key is to balance active engagement with realistic assessment of Singapore’s influence, maintain ASEAN centrality while leveraging external partnerships, and use the immediate crisis to advance longer-term structural solutions that can prevent future conflicts.

Success will require sustained commitment, diplomatic skill, and willingness to invest resources in regional stability—but the costs of failure, both for Singapore and the region, are far greater than the costs of engagement.