HDB MOP Supply Surge (2026-2028)

by | Dec 28, 2025 | Uncategorized | 0 comments

Executive Summary

Singapore’s public housing market faces a significant influx of resale-eligible flats as 13,480 HDB units reach their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2026, nearly double 2025’s supply. This case study examines the market dynamics, projections, and implications for Singapore’s housing ecosystem.
13,480 HDB flats will reach their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2026

This is nearly double the 6,970 units that reached MOP in 2025

The flats are spread across 22 projects in 14 towns

Main Locations:

  1. Punggol – 3,222 units (largest supply, mostly in Punggol Northshore)
  2. Queenstown – 2,405 units (in Dawson area)
  3. Tampines – 2,133 units (mostly Tampines North)
  4. Toa Payoh – 1,594 units (in Bidadari estate)

What This Means:

According to property analysts, the increased supply could moderate resale price growth. When flats reach MOP, owners can sell them on the resale market, creating more supply. This should help address housing demand and put “some downward pressure” on prices, particularly in popular areas like Dawson and Bidadari where many flats are reaching MOP.

However, prices may remain strong for five-room flats in mature estates, since larger, newer flats in these areas are relatively rare.

Looking Ahead: The supply is expected to keep growing – 18,939 units in 2027 and 21,393 units in 2028. Minister Chee Hong Tat mentioned that when the resale market stabilizes with increased supply, authorities might consider relaxing the 15-month wait-out period for private property owners wanting to buy resale flats.

Case Study: The MOP Supply Wave

Background Context

The Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) is a five-year restriction preventing HDB flat owners from selling their units on the resale market. The surge in MOP-eligible flats in 2026 stems from delayed Build-To-Order (BTO) projects affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, which are now reaching completion and their subsequent MOP deadlines.

Current Situation (2025-2026)

Supply Metrics:

  • 2025: 6,970 flats reached MOP
  • 2026: 13,480 flats reaching MOP (93% increase)
  • 2027 projected: 18,939 flats
  • 2028 projected: 21,393 flats
  • Total 2026-2028: Over 53,000 flats (vs. 34,000 in 2023-2025)

Geographic Distribution (2026):

  • Punggol: 3,222 units (23.9%) – Punggol Northshore developments
  • Queenstown: 2,405 units (17.8%) – Dawson estate
  • Tampines: 2,133 units (15.8%) – Tampines North
  • Toa Payoh: 1,594 units (11.8%) – Bidadari estate
  • Other 10 towns: 4,126 units (30.6%)

Unit Type Breakdown:

  • Four-room flats: 5,909 units (43.8%)
  • Three-room flats: 2,561 units (19.0%)
  • Five-room flats: 2,711 units (20.1%)
  • Two-room flats: 2,299 units (17.1%)

Market Pressures

Premium Segment Performance: Areas like Dawson and Bidadari have consistently recorded million-dollar transactions:

  • June 2025: Five-room loft at SkyTerrace @ Dawson sold for $1.659 million (highest 2025 transaction)
  • April 2025: Three-room flat at SkyParc @ Dawson sold for $935,000 (record for unit type)
  • 638 four-room flats in Toa Payoh and Queenstown exceeded $1 million by December 26, 2025
  • Six three-room flats surpassed $900,000

Outlook: Market Projections (2026-2028)

Short-Term Outlook (2026)

Price Moderation Expected: Property analysts anticipate the increased supply will create downward pressure on resale prices, particularly in high-demand areas where large volumes of flats become available simultaneously.

Segment-Specific Trends:

Premium Mature Estates (Queenstown, Toa Payoh, Tampines, Bedok):

  • Five-room flats likely to remain buoyant due to scarcity of larger, newer units
  • Continued strong demand from upgraders and families
  • Price growth may slow but remain positive

High-Demand New Towns (Punggol, Bidadari, Dawson):

  • Most significant price moderation expected
  • Large supply influx may cool speculative activity
  • Market correction toward sustainable valuations

Heartland Estates (Sengkang, Bukit Batok):

  • Price stabilization anticipated
  • Steady demand from families seeking value and accessibility
  • Appeal based on schools, amenities, and transport links

Medium-Term Outlook (2027-2028)

Sustained Supply Growth: The escalating MOP volumes (18,939 in 2027; 21,393 in 2028) suggest continued market normalization. This aligns with government objectives to moderate price growth while maintaining housing affordability.

Policy Adjustments: National Development Minister Chee Hong Tat indicated potential relaxation of the 15-month wait-out period for private property downgraders once the resale market stabilizes. This could:

  • Inject additional supply from downgraders
  • Improve market liquidity
  • Provide more options for buyers across price points

Risk Factors

Upside Risks (Continued Price Growth):

  • Strong underlying demand from population growth
  • Limited new launch supply in certain mature estates
  • Economic prosperity maintaining purchasing power
  • Low interest rate environment (if maintained)

Downside Risks (Sharper Correction):

  • Economic downturn reducing buyer confidence
  • Rising interest rates affecting affordability
  • Oversupply in specific estates creating localized price drops
  • Policy changes affecting housing demand

Solutions: Multi-Stakeholder Approaches

For Homeowners Reaching MOP

Timing Strategy:

  • Assess market conditions before listing
  • Consider waiting if supply glut is evident in your estate
  • Monitor transaction volumes and days-on-market metrics
  • Engage property agents familiar with micro-market dynamics

Pricing Strategy:

  • Set competitive prices based on recent comparable transactions
  • Avoid anchoring to peak 2025 prices in high-demand areas
  • Factor in increased competition from other MOP sellers
  • Consider staged price adjustments if units don’t move quickly

Property Enhancement:

  • Complete renovations to differentiate from standard units
  • Professional photography and staging for listings
  • Highlight unique features (view, floor level, orientation)
  • Ensure all documentation is prepared for quick transactions

For Prospective Buyers

Market Entry Timing:

  • Mid-2026 onward may offer better selection and value
  • Monitor estates with high MOP volumes for opportunities
  • Be prepared to act quickly on well-priced units
  • Consider areas like Tampines and Punggol where supply increases most

Search Strategy:

  • Expand search radius to include heartland estates
  • Consider newer flats in non-central locations for value
  • Evaluate trade-offs between location and unit age/size
  • Work with agents covering multiple estates

Financial Preparation:

  • Secure in-principle loan approval before house hunting
  • Understand CPF usage limits and cash requirements
  • Factor in potential interest rate changes
  • Build buffer for renovation and moving costs

For Government and HDB

Supply Management:

  • Continue calibrating BTO launches based on demand indicators
  • Monitor resale price movements across estates
  • Adjust cooling measures if market overheats or overcorrects
  • Provide transparent data on upcoming MOP supply

Policy Refinements:

  • Gradual relaxation of wait-out period as planned
  • Consider targeted grants for first-time buyers in stabilizing markets
  • Review resale levy structure to encourage right-sizing
  • Enhance public education on realistic price expectations

Market Support Measures:

  • Maintain adequate financing options through HDB loans
  • Ensure transaction processes remain efficient
  • Support genuine buyers while preventing speculation
  • Monitor and address any market manipulation

For Property Analysts and Agents

Market Intelligence:

  • Provide estate-level granular analysis
  • Track absorption rates of MOP units
  • Identify emerging value propositions
  • Educate clients on market realities vs. headlines

Client Advisory:

  • Manage seller expectations in high-supply estates
  • Guide buyers toward sustainable purchasing decisions
  • Discourage speculative behavior
  • Promote long-term housing stability

Impact Analysis

Market Impact

Price Stabilization (Most Likely Scenario): The consensus among analysts suggests overall slower price growth rather than sharp declines. The 93% increase in MOP supply represents a significant market shift but occurs against persistent underlying demand.

Estimated Price Movement (2026):

  • Overall HDB resale: +1% to +3% (vs. higher growth in 2025)
  • Premium mature estates: +2% to +4%
  • High-supply new towns: -1% to +2%
  • Heartland estates: 0% to +2%

Transaction Volume: Expected increase in transaction volumes as more sellers enter the market, potentially improving market liquidity and buyer choice.

Social Impact

Housing Affordability: Moderated price growth supports the government’s affordability objectives, helping younger families and first-time buyers enter the property market without extreme financial strain.

Wealth Effects:

  • Homeowners in high-MOP-supply areas may see slower wealth accumulation
  • Those who purchased at peak prices in 2024-2025 may experience paper losses
  • Long-term homeowners still benefit from substantial appreciation since purchase

Housing Mobility: Increased resale supply facilitates family right-sizing, job relocations, and life stage transitions, improving overall social flexibility.

Economic Impact

Construction Sector: Sustained BTO pipeline supports construction employment while MOP supply moderates resale prices, creating balanced market conditions.

Financial Sector:

  • Banks face manageable mortgage portfolios with gradual price adjustments
  • Lower risk of negative equity scenarios compared to sharp corrections
  • Continued healthy mortgage lending activity

Consumer Spending: Price stabilization may free up household budgets for other consumption, potentially boosting retail and services sectors.

Policy Effectiveness

Government Housing Goals: The MOP supply surge, partially resulting from pandemic-delayed projects, inadvertently serves policy objectives of:

  • Cooling speculative activity
  • Improving affordability
  • Maintaining public housing as homes, not investment vehicles

Market Confidence: Transparent communication about supply pipeline helps set realistic expectations and prevents panic buying or selling.

Recommendations

For Immediate Action (2026)

  1. Homeowners: List early in the year before peak supply hits; price competitively
  2. Buyers: Monitor Q2-Q3 2026 for potential value opportunities
  3. Government: Communicate supply projections clearly; prepare policy adjustments
  4. Industry: Educate stakeholders on market dynamics to prevent overreaction

For Medium-Term Planning (2027-2028)

  1. All Stakeholders: Adopt long-term perspective on housing as shelter, not speculation
  2. Policymakers: Fine-tune measures based on 2026 market response
  3. Buyers/Sellers: Make decisions based on personal needs rather than timing the market
  4. Analysts: Develop more granular, estate-specific forecasting models

Conclusion

The 2026 MOP supply surge represents a significant inflection point for Singapore’s HDB resale market. While the 93% year-on-year increase in supply is substantial, the impact is likely to be moderating rather than disruptive. The combination of persistent demand, diverse geographic distribution, and gradual supply increases over three years should allow for orderly market adjustment.

Success will depend on realistic expectations from sellers, patient opportunism from buyers, and continued calibrated policy management from authorities. The ultimate outcome should be a healthier, more sustainable housing market that better serves Singapore’s long-term social and economic objectives.