Executive Summary

On January 3, 2026, US Special Forces conducted Operation Absolute Resolve, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a military operation that has sparked international controversy. This case study examines the operation’s context, legal implications, geopolitical impact, and potential pathways forward.

Case Study

Background Context

Nicolás Maduro has led Venezuela since 2013, presiding over economic collapse, hyperinflation, and mass emigration. In 2020, the US Department of Justice indicted him on charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy, alleging he coordinated with FARC dissidents to flood the United States with cocaine. The US offered a $15 million reward for information leading to his arrest.

The situation escalated amid Venezuela’s deepening ties with US adversaries including Russia, China, Iran, and Hezbollah, combined with ongoing disputes over Venezuela’s contested 2024 election results and humanitarian crisis affecting over 7 million emigrants.

The Operation

Operation Absolute Resolve involved US Special Forces conducting air strikes on military installations in Caracas, knocking out power infrastructure and engaging Venezuelan military forces. The operation successfully extracted Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, transporting them to New York where Maduro now faces federal drug trafficking and weapons charges at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn.

Legal Framework Analysis

US Legal Justification:

• Article 51 of the UN Charter (self-defense provision)
• Outstanding federal indictment from 2020
• Characterization of drug trafficking as national security threat
• Allegations of coordination with designated terrorist organizations

International Law Concerns: Legal experts from Stanford, Cleveland State, and Rutgers Law Schools have identified multiple violations:

• Lack of UN Security Council authorization for use of force
• Absence of Venezuelan consent
• Failure to meet self-defense threshold (no armed attack occurred)
• Violation of head of state immunity and inviolability
• Breach of territorial sovereignty under UN Charter Article 2(4)
• Extraterritorial jurisdiction concerns

UN Response: Secretary-General António Guterres called the operation a “dangerous precedent.” The Security Council convened on January 5, though US veto power prevents any binding accountability measures.

Outlook

Short-Term (3-6 months)

Political Dynamics: Venezuela’s interim government, led by Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, appears to be maintaining unity despite Maduro’s capture. The power structure may consolidate or fracture depending on military loyalty and international recognition.

International Relations:

• US allies are navigating careful diplomatic balance, calling for respect of international law without directly criticizing Washington
• Russia and China have condemned the operation as illegal, potentially deepening their support for Venezuela’s interim government
• Latin American nations face pressure to choose sides, risking regional polarization
• The precedent may embolden similar operations or invite retaliatory actions

Legal Proceedings: Maduro’s criminal trial will unfold over months or years, becoming a focal point for debates about extraterritorial law enforcement, due process, and political prosecutions.

Medium-Term (6-18 months)

Venezuela’s Trajectory: The country faces several possible scenarios: continued governance by Maduro loyalists, internal power struggles leading to instability, negotiations for transitional government, or potential for democratic opposition to gain ground if international support shifts.

Global Precedent: Other nations may cite this operation as justification for their own extraterritorial actions against foreign leaders they view as threats. This could fundamentally alter the post-World War II international order based on state sovereignty and non-intervention.

Economic Implications: Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. The political uncertainty affects global energy markets, Chinese and Russian economic interests worth billions, and potential US sanctions policy shifts.

Long-Term (2+ years)

International Law Evolution: This case may reshape interpretations of self-defense, humanitarian intervention, and extraterritorial jurisdiction. It could either strengthen arguments for accountability of authoritarian leaders or entrench protection of sovereignty regardless of regime conduct.

Geopolitical Realignment: The operation signals potential US willingness to use military force against adversarial governments in its hemisphere, potentially affecting calculations in Cuba, Nicaragua, and elsewhere. It may accelerate formation of anti-US coalitions or prompt adversaries to develop deterrence capabilities.

Impact Assessment

On Venezuela

Immediate:

• Power vacuum creating governance uncertainty
• Potential for civil unrest or military fragmentation
• Economic disruption as international actors reassess engagement
• Humanitarian crisis potentially worsening amid instability

Strategic:

• Possible pathway to political transition if handled diplomatically
• Risk of failed state scenario if power struggle turns violent
• Long-term impact on democratic institutions and rule of law
• Generational effects on Venezuelan public trust in international community

On International Order

Sovereignty and Non-Intervention: The operation fundamentally challenges the principle that states should not use force against other states’ territorial integrity. If normalized, this could lead to increased international instability as more powerful states feel empowered to conduct similar operations.

Selective Enforcement: The operation highlights how international law depends on power dynamics rather than universal principles. Smaller nations cannot realistically conduct similar operations, reinforcing perceptions of a two-tiered system.

Alliance Structures: US allies face difficult choices between supporting Washington and upholding international legal principles, potentially straining NATO and other partnerships. Non-aligned nations may increasingly view multilateral institutions as ineffective.

On US Foreign Policy

Credibility:

• Demonstrates willingness to use military force decisively
• Raises questions about respect for international legal frameworks
• May complicate future US criticism of other nations’ violations
• Affects moral authority in promoting democracy and human rights

Regional Relations: Latin American nations must recalibrate their relationships with Washington, potentially driving some toward China or Russia while others may feel compelled to accommodate US security demands more readily.

Domestic Politics: The operation’s success or failure in court and its international ramifications will shape US political debates about foreign intervention, executive power, and America’s global role.

On China and Russia

Both nations face strategic setbacks with their ally in US custody, affecting their economic investments and geopolitical influence in Latin America. They may respond by deepening support for remaining Venezuelan leadership, increasing military cooperation with other regional partners, or pursuing asymmetric responses.

Solutions and Recommendations

For International Community

Diplomatic Path: Establish a contact group including US, Venezuela’s neighbors, EU, UN representatives, and relevant stakeholders to negotiate a comprehensive political settlement that addresses both Venezuela’s internal crisis and international legal concerns.

Legal Clarity: The International Court of Justice or UN General Assembly could request advisory opinions on the legal questions raised, helping establish clearer boundaries for future cases without directly challenging US actions.

Precedent Management: Work to ensure this remains an exceptional case rather than establishing a new norm. This requires explicit UN resolutions reaffirming sovereignty principles and commitments from major powers to respect these norms.

For Venezuela

Transitional Justice: Develop a roadmap that balances accountability for past abuses with political reconciliation, potentially involving truth commissions, amnesty negotiations, and internationally monitored elections.

Economic Recovery: International financial institutions should prepare comprehensive support packages contingent on political reforms, human rights improvements, and anti-corruption measures.

Institutional Rebuilding: Focus on restoring judicial independence, democratic institutions, and civil society while addressing the humanitarian crisis affecting millions of citizens and emigrants.

For the United States

Legal Process: Ensure Maduro receives a fair trial meeting all due process standards to demonstrate that the operation serves justice rather than political objectives. Transparency is essential for credibility.

Diplomatic Engagement: Rather than treating this as purely a law enforcement matter, engage in good-faith negotiations with Venezuelan stakeholders and international partners to achieve a political settlement that serves Venezuelan people’s interests.

Precedent Clarification: Clearly articulate that this operation represents unique circumstances rather than a template for future action, and commit to working within international legal frameworks in other contexts.

Regional Initiative: Launch a comprehensive Western Hemisphere security and development partnership addressing underlying issues like drug trafficking, corruption, and economic inequality that create instability.

For Regional Stakeholders

Latin American Unity: CELAC, OAS, and other regional bodies should assert their role in mediating a solution that respects both sovereignty and human rights, preventing this from becoming solely a US-dictated outcome.

Neighboring States: Colombia, Brazil, and other neighbors should coordinate on managing refugee flows, border security, and economic spillovers while positioning themselves as honest brokers for political dialogue.

Civil Society: Venezuelan diaspora organizations, human rights groups, and democracy advocates should unite around a positive vision for Venezuela’s future rather than focusing solely on Maduro’s fate.

Multilateral Mechanisms

UN Reform Dialogue: Use this crisis to open serious discussions about Security Council reform, accountability for permanent members, and mechanisms to address when leaders commit crimes but military intervention would violate sovereignty.

International Criminal Court: While the US is not an ICC member and Venezuela withdrew in 2019, ICC prosecutors could examine whether charges could be brought, establishing an alternative legal pathway for addressing authoritarian abuses.

New Frameworks: Develop international consensus on how to handle situations where leaders commit serious crimes against their own people or engage in activities threatening other nations, balancing sovereignty with accountability.

Conclusion

The capture of President Maduro represents a watershed moment in international relations with implications extending far beyond Venezuela. While addressing legitimate concerns about drug trafficking and authoritarianism, the operation’s legality under international law remains highly contested.

The path forward requires balancing multiple imperatives: ensuring justice and accountability, respecting international legal frameworks, supporting Venezuela’s democratic transition, and preventing this from becoming a precedent that destabilizes the international order. Success depends on creative diplomacy, good-faith negotiation among stakeholders, and willingness to prioritize long-term stability over short-term political gains.

The international community now faces a choice: allow this incident to fragment global cooperation and erode legal norms, or use it as a catalyst for developing more effective mechanisms to address the genuine dilemmas posed by authoritarian regimes that harm their people and threaten international security. The decisions made in coming months will shape international relations for decades to come.