Targeted Killings and Ceasefire Fragility in the Israel-Palestine Conflict: An Analysis of the Mohammed Al-Holy Incident
Abstract
This paper examines the January 2026 killing of senior Hamas commander Mohammed Al-Holy in Deir al-Balah, Gaza, as a case study for understanding the dynamics of targeted killings, ceasefire violations, and humanitarian consequences in the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict. Through analysis of this incident within the broader historical and political context, the paper explores how such targeted operations undermine peace processes, contribute to cycles of violence, and disproportionately affect civilian populations. The study incorporates international law frameworks, conflict resolution theories, and humanitarian impact assessments to provide a multidimensional perspective on these operations and their implications for regional stability.
Introduction
The targeted killing of Mohammed Al-Holy, a local commander in Hamas’s armed wing, along with six others including a teenager, represents both a continuation and escalation of tactics employed in the protracted Israel-Palestine conflict. According to reporting from Cairo (ST, 2026), this January 2026 incident occurred despite a fragile ceasefire established in October 2025, during which over 400 Palestinians and three Israeli soldiers had already been killed.
Targeted killings have become a defining feature of modern asymmetric warfare and counterinsurgency operations, particularly in the Israel-Palestine context. These operations serve dual purposes: removing perceived security threats and sending psychological messages to adversaries. However, their strategic effectiveness remains contested, particularly when conducted during ceasefire periods or in densely populated civilian areas.
This paper analyzes the Al-Holy incident through multiple lenses: military strategy, international humanitarian law, conflict resolution, and humanitarian impact. By examining this case within its broader context, we aim to illuminate how such operations perpetuate conflict cycles while offering critical insights for policymakers seeking sustainable peace frameworks in the region.
Historical Context of Targeted Killings in the Israel-Palestine Conflict
The practice of targeted killings in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict dates back several decades but intensified significantly during the Second Intifada (2000-2005). According to B’tselem (2023), between 2000 and 2023, Israeli forces conducted hundreds of targeted killings resulting in approximately 500 Palestinian fatalities, including numerous bystanders. These operations expanded dramatically after 2004 when the Israeli Supreme Court, while imposing some restrictions, largely authorized the practice under certain conditions.
Hamas leaders have consistently been prioritized targets due to their designation as a terrorist organization by Israel, the United States, and the European Union. The organization’s political wing, which governs Gaza, and its military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, present Israel with complex strategic challenges. Commanders like Al-Holy, operating at the local level, represent both tactical threats and symbolic targets for Israeli military operations.
The October 2025 ceasefire referenced in the news report emerged after one of the most intense periods of conflict since 2008-2009. Despite international diplomatic efforts, including US-brokered negotiations, the ceasefire remained “fragile” from its inception, with both sides alleging frequent violations. This environment created conditions where operations like the one that killed Al-Holy could exacerbate tensions and threaten the broader ceasefire framework.
Analysis of the Deir al-Balah Incident
Military and Strategic Dimensions
The killing of Mohammed Al-Holy in central Gaza carries several strategic implications. As a local commander in Deir al-Balah, Al-Holy likely played a significant operational role in Hamas’s military activities in the region. From an Israeli military perspective, such mid-level commanders represent critical nodes within Hamas’s organizational structure, responsible for tactical planning, weapons deployment, and coordination of local fighters.
The timing of this operation is particularly noteworthy. Conducted during a ceasefire period, it suggests either a perceived imminent threat that required immediate action or a strategic decision to pursue high-value targets regardless of diplomatic frameworks. The civilian casualties, including a 16-year-old, raise questions about the methods employed and the assessment of potential collateral damage.
From Hamas’s perspective, such targeted operations during truces represent significant violations that justify retaliation. This creates a dangerous feedback loop where each side’s “defensive” actions are interpreted as aggression by the other, making ceasefire maintenance increasingly difficult.
Legal Frameworks and Controversies
The legality of targeted killings under international law remains highly contested. The foundational legal distinction between armed conflict and law enforcement situations determines which legal framework applies. Under International Humanitarian Law (IHL), combatants may be lawfully targeted unless they are hors de combat (no longer fighting). However, Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions requires adherence to principles of distinction and proportionality, prohibiting attacks that cause excessive civilian harm relative to the anticipated military advantage.
The United Nations Human Rights Council (2024) has repeatedly questioned Israel’s compliance with these principles in Gaza operations. The presence of a 16-year-old among the casualties in the Al-Holy incident raises particular concerns, as children enjoy special protections under international law. Furthermore, conducting strikes in densely populated areas like Deir al-Balah creates inherently high risks to civilian populations.
Israel typically justifies such operations through two legal arguments: that Hamas operatives use civilian infrastructure for military purposes, transforming these areas into legitimate targets, and that Hamas fails to distinguish itself from the civilian population. Human rights organizations counter that these arguments do not absolve an attacking force of proportionality responsibilities.
Humanitarian Impact
The humanitarian consequences of ongoing violence in Gaza, including targeted killings, cannot be overstated. According to the UN children’s agency (quoted in the source article), over 100 children had been killed in Gaza since the October 2025 ceasefire, including victims of drone and quadcopter attacks. The killing of a 16-year-old in the Al-Holy operation adds to this tragic toll.
The article notes that “nearly all of [Gaza’s] more than 2 million people now live in makeshift homes or damaged buildings in a sliver of territory where Israeli troops have withdrawn and Hamas has reasserted control.” This context of massive displacement, infrastructure destruction, and humanitarian crisis amplifies the impact of individual incidents like the Al-Holy strike.
Psychological trauma represents another significant dimension of harm, particularly for children and adolescents. Studies by Palestinian health organizations (2025) indicate rising rates of PTSD, anxiety, and depression among Gaza’s youth, with each violent incident contributing to this collective trauma that affects social development and future prospects for peace.
Ceasefire Dynamics and Violations
Structural Challenges to Ceasefire Maintenance
The fragility of ceasefires in the Israel-Palestine context stems from several structural factors. First, fundamental disagreements about the terms and interpretation of ceasefire provisions create gray areas that both sides exploit. The article notes that “Israel and Hamas have traded blame for violations of the ceasefire and remain far apart from each other on key issues,” despite diplomatic efforts.
Second, the asymmetry between the parties creates different levels of vulnerability and leverage. Israel faces relatively low-level security threats from Gaza compared to the existential concerns Hamas faces from Israeli military capabilities. This asymmetry leads to different approaches to ceasefire maintenance and different thresholds for determining violations.
Third, internal political considerations on both sides incentivize demonstrating strength rather than compromise. Israeli leaders face pressure to appear security-conscious, while Hamas leadership must maintain credibility with its base and broader Palestinian constituency. The killing of a commander like Al-Holy creates domestic pressure on Hamas to respond, while maintaining the ceasefire under such pressures demonstrates political vulnerability.
The Role of Third-Party Mediators
The United States, despite announcing “the second phase of the ceasefire” according to the article, apparently lacks sufficient leverage to enforce compliance from both parties. This limitation reflects broader challenges in international mediation efforts in the region.
Effective ceasefire monitoring requires both technical capabilities (surveillance, verification mechanisms) and political will to respond to violations. The United Nations and other international bodies have historically struggled with both aspects in the Israeli-Palestinian context. The absence of a robust monitoring mechanism in the October 2025 ceasefire agreement likely contributed to its vulnerability to violations like the Al-Holy operation.
Implications for Conflict Resolution
Cycle of Violence Dynamics
The Al-Holy incident exemplifies the cycle of violence that characterizes much of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Each targeted killing generates backlash, justifying further operations, creating a self-perpetuating dynamic that undermines peace efforts. Breaking these cycles requires addressing not only individual incidents but the structural factors that sustain them.
This cycle operates at multiple levels: tactical (imilitary responses to specific threats), strategic (long-term approaches to the enemy), and political (domestic and international considerations). Effective conflict resolution must address all three dimensions simultaneously, a challenge that has consistently eluded diplomatic efforts to date.
Preconditions for Sustainable Peace
Based on analysis of incidents like the Al-Holy killing, several preconditions emerge for sustainable peace in the region. First, any ceasefire agreement must include robust monitoring and enforcement mechanisms with clear consequences for violations. Second, political settlements must address the underlying grievances that fuel violence, including occupation, blockade, settlement expansion, and Palestinian division.
Third, external actors must maintain consistent engagement and apply appropriate incentives and pressures to support compliance. Fourth, civil society initiatives that build bridges between Israeli and Palestinian communities must be strengthened to create bottom-up pressure for peace implementation.
Conclusion
The killing of senior Hamas commander Mohammed Al-Holy in Deir al-Balah represents more than an isolated incident; it embodies the complex dynamics that perpetuate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While militarily logical from a counterterrorism perspective, such targeted operations during ceasefire periods undermine diplomatic efforts, increase civilian suffering, and contribute to cycles of retaliation.
The humanitarian dimensions of these operations, particularly the disproportionate impact on children and civilian infrastructure, raise serious questions under international humanitarian law. The continued loss of civilian life, even in “targeted” operations, erodes prospects for peace by deepening trauma and fostering grievances.
Sustainable resolution requires moving beyond security-first approaches toward comprehensive frameworks that address political, humanitarian, and legal dimensions simultaneously. Until such frameworks emerge, incidents like the Al-Holy killing will likely continue, extending a tragic cycle that has already cost too many lives on both sides.
Future research should focus on developing more effective ceasefire monitoring mechanisms, analyzing the strategic effectiveness of targeted killings versus their diplomatic costs, and identifying pathways to protect civilian populations during ongoing conflicts. Only through such multidimensional approaches can the international community hope to facilitate lasting peace in this troubled region.
References
B’tselem (2023). “Fatalities in Operation ‘Shield and Arrow’.” Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories.
Human Rights Watch (2024). “Israel: Gaza Strikes Show Reckless Disregard for Civilians.” Human Rights Watch Report.
Palestinian Center for Human Rights (2025). “Psychological Impact of Ongoing Violence on Gaza Children.” Gaza: PCHR Publications.
United Nations Human Rights Council (2024). “Report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory.”
United Nations Relief and Works Agency (2026). “Humanitarian Impact Report: Gaza Strip.”
ST (2026, January 16). “Senior Hamas figure killed in Israeli air strike in Gaza.” Singapore Times.