A Historic Turning Point in Public Housing

For the first time in nearly five years, Singapore’s HDB resale market has hit the pause button. The fourth quarter of 2025 marked a watershed moment: resale flat prices remained completely flat, ending an unbroken streak of quarterly increases that began in the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic. This isn’t just a statistical blip—it signals a fundamental shift in Singapore’s public housing landscape that will ripple through the lives of hundreds of thousands of families.

The numbers tell a sobering story. Annual price growth plummeted from 9.7% in 2024 to just 2.9% in 2025, the slowest pace since 2019. Transaction volumes collapsed by nearly 10%, with the final quarter of 2025 seeing sales crater by more than a quarter compared to the previous three months. What’s driving this dramatic reversal, and what does it mean for Singapore’s public housing ecosystem?

Overall Annual Performance:

• HDB resale flat prices increased 2.9% in 2025, significantly slower than 2024’s 9.7% growth
• This was the slowest price growth since 2019

Quarterly Trends:

• In Q4 2025, resale prices remained unchanged for the first time since Q1 2020
• This followed four consecutive quarters of decelerating price growth
• Q2, Q3, and Q4 2025 all saw price growth under 1%

Transaction Volume:

• Annual resale transactions fell 9.7% to 26,169 units (down from 28,986 in 2024)
• Q4 2025 saw a sharp 27.2% drop in sales to 5,256 units (from 7,221 in Q3)
• This was the first annual volume decline since 2023

Market Context: The continuous price increases since Q2 2020 were driven by the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on BTO construction, which constrained public housing supply.

Government Response:

• HDB will launch 19,600 BTO flats in 2026
• Plans to offer over 55,000 flats from 2025-2027 if demand requires
• February 2026 launch: ~4,600 BTO flats in Bukit Merah, Sembawang, Tampines, and Toa Payoh
• HDB advised buyers to exercise prudence given uncertain macroeconomic conditions

The data suggests the HDB resale market is cooling significantly after years of strong growth.

The Pandemic Hangover Finally Arrives

To understand the current cooling, we must revisit the extraordinary market dynamics of the past five years. When COVID-19 struck in early 2020, construction sites shuttered, foreign workers were quarantined, and the steady pipeline of Build-To-Order flats that Singaporeans had long relied upon suddenly ground to a halt. Supply constraints met sustained demand, and prices took off like a rocket.

Young couples found themselves locked out of their homeownership dreams as cash-over-valuation premiums soared. Million-dollar HDB flats, once a rarity, became increasingly common even in mature estates. Property agents fielded bidding wars for modest four-room flats in neighborhoods that had been considered unremarkable just months earlier.

Now, that fever has broken. The unchanged prices in Q4 2025 represent more than statistical cooling—they mark the end of pandemic-era housing scarcity as the primary driver of the resale market.

Winners and Losers in the New Normal

First-Time Buyers: A Window of Opportunity

For young couples who have spent years watching flat prices climb beyond their reach, the cooling market offers a rare opening. The days of needing to offer substantial cash-over-valuation just to compete are fading. Buyers now have more negotiating power, more time to consider their options, and less pressure to make desperate bids on properties that stretch their financial limits.

Those earning moderate incomes—teachers, nurses, mid-level civil servants—who were effectively priced out during the boom years may finally find that four-room flat in Tampines or Jurong within reach. The psychological shift matters as much as the financial one: the fear of missing out that drove so many rushed decisions is dissipating.

Current Owners: Paper Gains Frozen, Real Decisions Ahead

For the majority of HDB owners who purchased during the pandemic boom, the cooling market presents a more complex picture. Those who bought in 2021 or 2022 have watched their property values appreciate substantially—but that window may now be closing. Owners who were considering selling to upgrade or right-size must now weigh whether to lock in gains or wait for a market recovery that may not materialize soon.

More concerning are those who stretched their finances to purchase at peak prices in late 2024 or early 2025, possibly paying significant cash-over-valuation premiums. With prices now stagnant, these owners face the prospect of years before their properties appreciate to levels that would allow them to profitably upgrade or relocate.

Sellers: The End of Easy Profits

The 27.2% quarterly drop in transactions tells its own story. Sellers who became accustomed to quick sales and competitive offers now face a different reality. Flats sit on the market longer. Buyers become more selective. The practice of pricing flats optimistically and waiting for desperate buyers to appear no longer works.

Sellers with urgent timelines—those who need to relocate for work, elderly residents downsizing, families growing beyond their current space—may find themselves accepting offers below their expectations or, worse, unable to sell at all within their desired timeframe.

The Government’s Delicate Balancing Act

HDB’s announcement that it stands ready to launch more than 55,000 flats from 2025 to 2027 represents a deliberate policy choice: prioritize housing affordability over asset appreciation. This massive supply injection, coming alongside the resale market cooling, sends an unmistakable signal about the government’s priorities.

The 19,600 BTO flats planned for 2026, including more than 4,000 units with waiting times under three years, directly addresses the supply crunch that fueled the pandemic-era price surge. But this solution creates its own tensions. Every new BTO flat that comes online at subsidized prices potentially puts downward pressure on resale values.

For decades, Singapore’s social compact around public housing has rested on a careful balance: HDB flats serve as both affordable homes and retirement nest eggs. The government’s current trajectory prioritizes the former, which may test political patience if resale values stagnate or decline for extended periods.

Macroeconomic Headwinds Ahead

HDB’s warning about an “uncertain macroeconomic outlook” shouldn’t be dismissed as boilerplate caution. Several economic factors threaten to sustain or deepen the current cooling:

Interest Rate Pressures: While rates have moderated from their peaks, mortgage costs remain significantly higher than the ultra-low rates that prevailed during much of the pandemic. Monthly loan repayments on a $500,000 flat can vary by hundreds of dollars depending on rate movements, directly impacting affordability.

Employment Uncertainty: Singapore’s export-dependent economy faces headwinds from global trade tensions and slower growth in key markets. Any uptick in unemployment or income stagnation would further dampen housing demand.

Demographic Shifts: Singapore’s aging population means more elderly residents may look to monetize their HDB flats through lease buyback schemes or sales, potentially adding to resale supply just as demand moderates.

Regional Lessons and Cautionary Tales

Singapore isn’t alone in experiencing post-pandemic housing market adjustments. Hong Kong saw public housing prices fall after their own surge. South Korean apartment prices in Seoul have experienced volatility following government interventions. The common thread: when governments prioritize affordability over asset appreciation, property markets adjust, sometimes painfully.

The risk for Singapore is overcorrection. If resale prices fall substantially, it could trigger a negative wealth effect, with homeowners feeling poorer and cutting consumption. More dangerously, it could undermine confidence in HDB flats as stores of value, potentially destabilizing the entire public housing system.

What Comes Next: Three Scenarios

Scenario 1: Soft Landing (Most Likely)

Prices stabilize at current levels or decline modestly (2-5%) over the next 12-18 months before resuming slow, sustainable growth of 1-3% annually. This would represent successful policy calibration: cooling excessive speculation while maintaining the asset value proposition of HDB ownership.

Scenario 2: Extended Stagnation

Prices remain essentially flat for 3-5 years as supply catches up with demand and economic headwinds persist. This tests social patience but ultimately resets expectations around HDB flats as homes rather than investment vehicles.

Scenario 3: Sharp Correction (Least Likely But Highest Impact)

An economic shock—deep recession, major employer relocations, demographic cliff—triggers a 10-15% price decline. This would cause genuine distress for recent buyers and potentially force government intervention to stabilize the market.

Practical Implications for Singaporeans

For Prospective Buyers: The current environment favors patience and selectivity. With seller desperation increasing and buyer negotiating power rising, those who can wait may secure better deals in coming months. However, don’t expect dramatic price drops—Singapore’s tight land constraints and growing population provide a floor for valuations.

For Current Owners: Avoid panic, but adjust expectations. The days of 10% annual appreciation are over. If you’re comfortable in your current flat and don’t need to move, the cooling market has minimal practical impact. If you must sell, price realistically and prepare for longer marketing periods.

For Policymakers: The challenge now shifts from cooling an overheated market to ensuring the cooling doesn’t become a crash. Fine-tuning BTO supply, monitoring resale volumes, and maintaining confidence in HDB flats as stable stores of value will require deft policy management.

The Bigger Picture: Redefining the Singapore Dream

Beyond the statistics and policy debates lies a deeper question: what should HDB flats represent in Singaporean society? The current cooling forces a reckoning with this question.

For decades, the answer has been “both”—affordable homes and appreciating assets. But as the resale market cools while BTO supply surges, that dual promise becomes harder to sustain. The government appears to be tilting decisively toward affordability, betting that Singaporeans will accept more modest asset appreciation in exchange for their children having realistic paths to homeownership.

This shift carries political risk. Older Singaporeans who have spent decades counting on their HDB flats to fund retirement may resent policies that constrain appreciation. Middle-aged owners who bought at premium prices may feel betrayed if values stagnate. Yet younger Singaporeans priced out during the boom will welcome any measures that restore affordability.

Conclusion: A Market in Transition

The unchanged resale prices of Q4 2025 mark more than a quarterly data point—they signal the end of one era in Singapore’s public housing story and the uncertain beginning of another. After five years of pandemic-distorted markets, we’re witnessing a return to something approaching normalcy, albeit a new normal where double-digit annual appreciation becomes the exception rather than the rule.

The impacts will be felt unevenly across generations and circumstances. Some will see long-awaited opportunities; others will feel the squeeze of stagnant asset values. The government faces the unenviable task of managing these competing interests while maintaining the public housing system that has been central to Singapore’s success.

What’s certain is that the great cooling of 2025 will be remembered as a pivotal moment—when Singapore’s public housing market shifted from pandemic boom to sustainable equilibrium, testing both policy wisdom and social resilience in the process. How this transition unfolds will shape homeownership dreams, retirement plans, and social cohesion for years to come.

The HDB resale market’s fever has broken. Now comes the hard work of building a healthier, more sustainable housing ecosystem in its place.