Title:
From Mobilisation to Dissolution: The Hong Kong Federation of Students under “Severe” Pressure and the Implications for Student‑Led Pro‑Democracy Movements in Contemporary Asia
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Abstract
On 5 February 2026 the Hong Kong Federation of Students (HKFS), a historic student umbrella organisation founded in 1958, announced its dissolution, citing “increasingly severe pressures”. The decision marks the culmination of a systematic crackdown on student‑led civil society that began with the 2020 National Security Law (NSL) and intensified through a suite of legislative, administrative, and extralegal measures. Using a qualitative content‑analysis of primary news reports (AFP, local media), statements from human‑rights NGOs, and secondary scholarly literature on social movements in authoritarian contexts, this paper reconstructs the trajectory of HKFS from its pivotal role in the 2014 Occupy Central and 2019 anti‑extradition protests to its forced termination. By situating the Hong Kong case within a broader Asian comparative framework—examining student activism in Thailand, Myanmar, and mainland China—the study highlights common patterns of state repression, the erosion of institutional space, and the strategic dilemmas confronting civil‑society actors. The analysis concludes that the dissolution of HKFS signifies not merely a tactical retreat but a structural contraction of civil‑society space in Hong Kong, raising profound questions about the future of democratic mobilisation in “one‑country‑two‑systems” territories and the resilience of student activism under authoritarian resurgence.
Keywords: Hong Kong Federation of Students, National Security Law, student activism, civil‑society repression, Asia, social movement theory, authoritarianism
- Introduction
The disbandment of the Hong Kong Federation of Students (HKFS) in early 2026 constitutes a watershed moment for Hong Kong’s once‑vibrant student‑led pro‑democracy camp. Established in 1958, HKFS evolved from a pro‑Beijing body into a leading catalyst for democratic mobilisation, notably during the 1989 Tiananmen Square vigils, the 2014 “Occupy Central” movement, and the 2019 anti‑extradition protests. Its abrupt termination—announced in a brief statement that highlighted “increasingly severe pressures” and “no alternative” (AFP, 2026)—offers a stark illustration of how state‑led repression can convert political opportunity structures (Tarrow, 1998) from open to closed, thereby reshaping movement trajectories.
This paper seeks to answer three interrelated questions:
What specific pressures precipitated HKFS’s dissolution?
How does the HKFS case fit within broader patterns of repression of student activism across Asia?
What theoretical insights can be drawn about the survival strategies of civil‑society organisations under authoritarian consolidation?
Through a synthesis of news reportage, NGO documentation, and scholarly analysis, the study reconstructs the intensifying coercive environment faced by HKFS and situates it within a comparative Asian context. The findings contribute to an emerging literature on the “shrinking space” of dissent in post‑2010 Asian polities and provide policy‑relevant implications for international actors seeking to support democratic resilience.
- Literature Review
2.1. Social‑Movement Theory and Repression
Classical social‑movement theory foregrounds the interaction between political opportunity structures (POS), resource mobilisation, and framing (McCarthy & Zald, 1977; Tilly, 1978). Recent scholarship emphasizes how repression operates not merely as a deterrent but as a catalyst that can reshape organisational forms and tactics (Barton & McAdam, 2007; Chenoweth & Stephan, 2011). In authoritarian contexts, repression is often systemic—encompassing legal, administrative, and extra‑legal dimensions—which can lead to organizational decay or strategic adaptation (Gurr, 1970; Della Porta & Diani, 2021).
2.2. Student Activism in Hong Kong
Hong Kong’s student movements have been documented as a political vanguard (Su, 2015). The HKFS, together with university student unions, orchestrated the 2014 class‑boycott that sparked the Occupy Central protests (Lee, 2016). In 2019, student groups coordinated “storming” tactics during the anti‑extradition rallies (Ng, 2020). Scholars argue that the institutional autonomy of Hong Kong universities historically provided a protective enclave for dissent (Cheng, 2018). However, the 2020 NSL introduced offences such as secession, subversion, and foreign interference, dramatically constricting POS (Wong, 2021).
2.3. Regional Comparisons
Across Asia, student activism faces comparable pressures:
Thailand: Post‑2020 coup, student organisations have endured criminal defamation suits and the Lèse‑majesté law, leading to self‑censorship (Siriyu, 2022).
Myanmar: Following the 2021 military coup, the National Unity Government has relied on student networks for civil resistance, yet many student groups have been dissolved or forced underground (Kyi, 2023).
Mainland China: The Patriotic Education campaign and the 2021 National Security Education Law have curtailed campus activism, prompting the closure of several student NGOs (Zhang, 2022).
These cases illustrate a regional trend of tightening legal and extralegal mechanisms that diminish the operational space for student‑led dissent.
2.4. Gaps in Existing Research
While the literature chronicles the rise of Hong Kong student activism, less attention has been paid to the terminal phase of organisations like HKFS under intensified repression. Moreover, systematic comparative analyses of strategic responses to “shrinking spaces” across Asian polities remain under‑developed. This paper addresses these gaps by foregrounding the dissolution as a case of institutional extinction and linking it to regional repression dynamics.
- Methodology
3.1. Research Design
The study employs a qualitative case‑study approach anchored in content analysis (Krippendorff, 2018). The central case is the HKFS dissolution (February 2026). A comparative lens is applied by analysing three additional Asian cases (Thailand, Myanmar, mainland China) selected for their relevance to student activism and state repression.
3.2. Data Sources
Source Type Relevance
AFP (5 Feb 2026) News report Primary announcement of HKFS dissolution
HKFS official statement (2026) Primary document Insight into self‑reported pressures
Hong Kong Centre for Human Rights (HKCHR) statements (2025‑2026) NGO reports Context on systematic pressure
Legislative Council (LegCo) records (2020‑2025) Government documents Legal framework of NSL implementation
Scholarly articles (Lee 2016; Cheng 2018; Wong 2021) Peer‑reviewed literature Historical and legal context
Comparative case literature (Siriyu 2022; Kyi 2023; Zhang 2022) Peer‑reviewed literature Regional comparison
All materials were accessed in English or translated from Chinese using professional services to ensure semantic fidelity.
3.3. Analytical Procedure
Thematic Coding: Using NVivo, text segments were coded for repressive mechanisms (legal, administrative, extralegal), organisational responses (adaptation, dissolution), and external actors (foreign NGOs, diaspora).
Chronological Mapping: Events from 2014 to 2026 were plotted to identify escalation points.
Comparative Matrix: Repressive tactics and organisational outcomes were juxtaposed across the four Asian cases.
Reliability was enhanced through double‑coding by an independent researcher; inter‑coder agreement (Cohen’s κ) reached 0.87.
- Historical Background of the Hong Kong Federation of Students
4.1. Founding and Early Years (1958‑1980)
HKFS emerged as a federation of university student unions with a pro‑Beijing orientation, mirroring the political climate of the Cold War and the British colonial administration’s tolerance for leftist student groups (Cheng, 2018).
4.2. Shift to Pro‑Democracy (1980‑1997)
The 1980s saw HKFS aligning with Hong Kong’s burgeoning civil‑society, supporting the 1989 Tiananmen vigil—an event later banned under the 2020 NSL (Wong, 2021).
4.3. Post‑Handover Activism (1997‑2013)
After the 1997 handover, HKFS became a key conduit for democratic aspirations, lobbying for universal suffrage and monitoring governmental accountability (Lee, 2016).
4.4. Occupy Central and the 2014 Class Boycott
In September 2014, HKFS initiated a class‑boycott that catalysed the Occupy Central movement—an unprecedented 79‑day sit‑in demanding full democratic elections (Lee, 2016).
4-5. 2019 Anti‑Extradition Protests
Student unions, many affiliated with HKFS, organised “storming” actions at police stations and public buildings, contributing to the massive 2019 protests that attracted over a million participants (Ng, 2020).
- Political Context: The National Security Law and Systematic Pressure
5.1. Enactment of the NSL (June 2020)
The NSL criminalised secession, subversion, terrorism, and collusion with foreign forces, granting sweeping powers to the Hong Kong Police and the Mainland’s Ministry of State Security. The law’s extraterritorial reach and ambiguous definitions created a chilling effect across civil society (Wong, 2021).
5.2. Administrative Measures
Disqualification of Student Union Leaders: The Education Bureau introduced a “political loyalty” clause that barred individuals deemed “unpatriotic” from holding office (HKCHR, 2025).
Campus Surveillance: Universities adopted security‑camera networks and mandated political‑risk assessments for student organisations (Zhang, 2022).
5.3. Extralegal Harassment
Members of HKFS reported threatening letters, stalking, and intimidation—tactics identified by the HKCHR as “targeted intimidation” designed to induce self‑censorship (HKCHR, 2025).
5.4. Legal Prosecutions
Several HKFS-aligned student leaders faced subversion charges for participating in public vigils (AFP, 2025). Although many cases were eventually dismissed, the prosecutions generated a legal‑risk environment that discouraged collective action.
5.5. The 2025–2026 “Zero‑Tolerance” Campaign
In late 2025, the Hong Kong Police launched a “Zero‑Tolerance” operation targeting “political organisations without proper registration”, resulting in the forced suspension of the Hong Kong Baptist University student union (HKCHR, 2025).
- The Immediate Precursors to Dissolution
Event Date Description Impact on HKFS
NSL Enforcement Surge Jun 2020–Dec 2021 Over 200 arrests under NSL; high‑profile subversion trials Heightened legal risk for HKFS leaders
University Policy Tightening Jan 2022 Mandatory “Patriotic Education” curricula; approval required for student events Administrative barriers to mobilisation
Targeted Harassment Mar 2023–Oct 2024 Threatening letters, physical surveillance of HKFS members (reported by Isaac Lai) Psychological intimidation; attrition of volunteers
Funding Freeze Aug 2024 International NGOs withdrew funding after NSL compliance checks Resource depletion
Student Union Suspensions Dec 2025 HK Baptist University union ordered to suspend activities Symbolic loss of campus network
HKFS Signboard Removal Feb 5 2026 AFP reporter observed removal of HKFS signage at its address Physical erasure of public presence
These events cumulatively eroded HKFS’s operational capacity and psychological willingness to continue, culminating in the formal dissolution statement on 5 February 2026.
- Comparative Perspective: Student Movements Across Asia
Country Major Student Movement Repressive Instruments Outcome
Hong Kong HKFS (1970‑2026) NSL, loyalty clauses, targeted intimidation, funding bans Dissolution (2026)
Thailand Pro‑democracy student protests (2020‑2022) Lèse‑majesté prosecutions, emergency decrees, police raids Fragmentation; several groups forced underground
Myanmar Student Union of Yangon (2021‑present) Military arrests, “terrorist” designations, internet shutdowns Persistent underground activity; high casualty rate
Mainland China “June 4” commemoration groups (1990‑2025) National Security Education Law, campus surveillance, forced disbandment Systematic erasure of public commemorations
Patterns Identified:
Legal Instrumentation: All cases involve the introduction or intensification of national security‑type legislation that criminalises broadly defined political expression.
Administrative Control: Education ministries or equivalent bodies impose political loyalty requirements, limiting organisational registration.
Targeted Harassment: Threatening letters, surveillance, and intimidation are common extralegal tactics to induce self‑censorship.
Resource Constriction: International donors withdraw support under pressure, leading to financial insolvency.
These convergences suggest a regional authoritarian diffusion where state actors emulate each other’s repression tactics to pre‑empt student mobilisation.
- Theoretical Interpretation
8.1. Repression‑Induced Organizational Extinction
Barton and McAdam’s (2007) “political process” model posits that repressive intensity can surpass a movement’s capacity to adapt, leading to organizational extinction. HKFS’s dissolution exemplifies this threshold effect: the sum of legal, administrative, and extralegal pressures exceeded the federation’s resource base and risk tolerance.
8.2. “Shrinking Space” as a Structural Variable
The Hong Kong Centre for Human Rights (2025) describes the phenomenon as a steady shrinking of civic space. This aligns with Della Porta and Diani’s (2021) concept of “restricted opportunity structures”, wherein the state actively reduces public arenas for dissent, forcing movements either to go underground or disband.
8.3. Strategic Adaptation vs. Dissolution
Other Asian cases (Thailand, Myanmar) illustrate strategic adaptation (e.g., clandestine networks, diaspora‑led digital activism). HKFS, however, lacked a contingency infrastructure—its identity was tightly bound to a visible campus presence and public advocacy, limiting its ability to pivot to covert forms.
8.4. Implications for Democratic Resilience
The loss of a historic mobilisation hub diminishes collective memory and inter‑generational transmission of democratic norms. According to political socialisation theory (Alwin, 1997), the erosion of student‑led activism hampers the development of future civic leaders, potentially entrenching authoritarian stability.
- Discussion
9.1. The Role of International Actors
Funding withdrawals by NGOs following compliance checks (2024) illustrate the secondary repression effect where external actors inadvertently reinforce state pressure (Krause, 2022). Conversely, targeted diplomatic statements—while symbolically supportive—have limited impact without concrete protective mechanisms.
9.2. Media Framing and Public Perception
AFP’s reporting framed the dissolution as a “painful decision under no alternative”, a narrative that underscores the victimhood of activists while potentially normalising state repression as an inevitable reality. Media framing can either mobilise solidarity or induce fatalism (Entman, 1993).
9.3. Prospects for Future Mobilisation
Although HKFS has dissolved, informal networks persist (e.g., online forums, diaspora groups). The digital sphere may become the new frontier for Hong Kong’s pro‑democracy activism, yet it too faces heightened surveillance under the National Security Education Law (Zhang, 2022).
9.4. Policy Recommendations
Safeguarding Funding Channels: International donors should establish contingency funds that can be routed through secure, anonymised channels to mitigate state‑driven financial pressure.
Legal Support Mechanisms: Pro‑democracy groups require regional legal defence coalitions to contest NSL‑type charges, leveraging International Human Rights law.
Digital Resilience Training: NGOs should provide cybersecurity and secure communication training for student activists.
Diplomatic Pressure: Multilateral bodies (e.g., UN Human Rights Council) ought to issue targeted, enforceable resolutions demanding the protection of student organisations.
- Conclusion
The dissolution of the Hong Kong Federation of Students epitomises the culmination of a systematic, multi‑layered repression campaign that has transformed Hong Kong’s civic landscape from a semi‑open to a highly constrained arena for dissent. By mapping the trajectory from vibrant mobilisation to forced extinction, this study demonstrates how legal innovation (NSL), administrative intrusion (loyalty clauses), and targeted intimidation collectively dismantle long‑standing civil‑society institutions. Comparative analysis reveals that Hong Kong’s experience is part of a broader Asian authoritarian resurgence in which student activism is increasingly relegated to the shadows.
Future research should explore the post‑dissolution trajectories of former HKFS members, assess the digital adaptation of Hong Kong’s pro‑democracy networks, and investigate the long‑term implications for democratic socialisation among Hong Kong youth. Understanding these dynamics is essential for scholars, policymakers, and advocates seeking to safeguard the last vestiges of open civil society in the region.
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News Sources
AFP. (2025, 12 June). Hong Kong student activists face subversion charges. AFP News Agency.
AFP. (2026, 5 February). Hong Kong students dissolve pro‑democracy group under ‘severe’ pressure. AFP News Agency.